Modeling tools for wind and solar integration and air quality co-benefits in a zero-carbon future

Abstract

Wind and solar can provide an endless supply of clean electricity, affording us all the benefits that modern society has to offer without the debilitating and inequitable effects of pollution. Unfortunately, these distributed energy resources stand in stark contrast to the central-station synchronous power plants of the past, and we have yet to remember how to work with naturally occurring flows of energy. In this future, both electricity demand and supply are inextricably linked to the weather. In response, I present a collection of open-source tools that center around meteorology -- the underlying driver of future electrical grid and air quality uncertainty. I begin with a spatial study focusing on solar development and show how sunny winter days might cause as many problems as cloudy summer ones. I then showcase novel tools that will lower the barrier to entry for meteorological modeling and are aimed at giving each government and non-profit agency access to in-house wind and solar forecasts. Building upon these, I propose an integrated framework for quantifying air-quality co-benefits associated with renewable energy development, which improves the case for further investment.