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Mathematical modeling of infectious disease dynamics: from recurrence to emergence

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Abstract

Mathematical models of infectious disease spread can be used to study both recurrent and emergent epidemics. Here, we explore both contexts. The first two chapters focus on modeling seasonal mechanisms in recurrent infectious diseases. We investigate the repercussions of using different models of seasonal forcing in childhood infectious disease dynamics and find a surprising invariance in long-term model behaviour. In another project, we propose a simple model of repeated individual vaccination decisions motivated by annual seasonal influenza vaccination campaigns. The second part of this dissertation adds to our understanding of modeling an emerging pandemic disease: COVID-19. We study age-based heterogeneities in COVID-19 severity in order to inform models of COVID-19-related hospitalizations, ICU admissions, and deaths. We also develop several crucial extensions to a COVID-19 model that have enabled the continued production of accurate and useful forecasts through the current phase of the pandemic, where vaccination efforts race emerging viral variants.

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207 pages

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Date Issued

2021-12

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Keywords

COVID-19; epidemiology; infectious disease dynamics; mathematical modelling; seasonal forcing; vaccination decisions

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Union Local

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Committee Chair

Strogatz, Steven H.

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Committee Member

Myers, Chris
Rand, Richard Herbert

Degree Discipline

Applied Mathematics

Degree Name

Ph. D., Applied Mathematics

Degree Level

Doctor of Philosophy

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Government Document

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dissertation or thesis

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