Long strange segments, ruin probabilities and the effect of memory on moving average processes
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Abstract
We obtain the rate of growth of long strange segments and the rate of
decay of
infinite horizon ruin probabilities for a class of infinite moving
average processes with exponentially light tails. The rates are
computed explicitly. We show that the rates are very similar to those
of an i.i.d. process as long as moving average coefficients decay fast
enough. If they
do not, then the rates are significantly different. This demonstrates
the change in the length of memory in a moving average process
associated with certain changes in the rate of decay of the
coefficients.
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NSA grant MSPF-05G-049, ARO
grant W911NF-07-1-0078 and NSF training grant ``Graduate and Postdoctoral
Training in Probability and Its Applications''
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2010-02-15T17:12:36Z
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Keywords
ruin probability; long strange segments; moving average; long range dependence; long memory
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