The 2012 Long-Term Projections for Social Security: Additional Information
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Congressional Budget Office
[Excerpt] Each year, CBO prepares long-term projections of revenues and outlays for the Social Security program. The most recent set of 75-year projections was published in June 2012. This publication presents additional information about those projections, which were made on the basis of two scenarios: The first, CBO’s extended baseline scenario, adheres closely to current law. For example, that scenario reflects the assumption that the cuts in individual income taxes enacted since 2001 and most recently extended in 2010 will expire as scheduled in 2012 and 2013. CBO also has developed an extended alternative fiscal scenario, which incorporates the assumptions that certain policies that have been in place for a number of years will be continued and that some provisions of law that might be difficult to sustain for a long period will be modified. Unless otherwise noted, the projections presented in the current analysis are based on the assumptions of the extended baseline scenario. In that scenario, income taxes, including the income taxes on Social Security benefits that are credited to the trust funds, are higher than they are in the extended alternative fiscal scenario.
Social Security; projections; Congressional Budget Office; CBO; revenue; income tax