Group Forecasting Accuracy in Hotels
Kimes, Sheryl E.
Yield management helps hotels more profitably manage the capacity of their rooms. Hotels tend to have two types of business: transient and group. Yield management research and systems have been designed for transient business in which the group forecast is taken as a given. In this research, forecast data from approximately 90 hotels of a large North American hotel chain were used to determine the accuracy of group forecasts and to identify factors associated with accurate forecasts. Forecasts showed a positive bias and had a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 40% at two months before arrival; 30% at one month before arrival; and 10-15% on the day of arrival. Larger hotels, hotels with a higher dependence on group business, and hotels that updated their forecasts frequently during the month before arrival had more accurate forecasts.
yield management; hotels; forecasting; groups
Required Publisher Statement: © Palgrave Macmillan. Final version published as: Kimes, S. E. (1999). Group forecasting accuracy in hotels. Journal of the Operational Research Society, 50(11), 1104-1110. Reprinted with permission. All rights reserved.