National and State Trends in Milk Production
Novakovic, Andrew M.; Jack, Kevin; Keniston, Maura
Estimates for cow numbers, production per cow and total milk production for the entire United States were not changed a great deal in the latest round of USDA final revisions, as illustrated in Figures 1 to 3. U.S. production per cow estimates were revised upward an average amount of 29 pounds/year for 1983-1987. The estimate for 1988 was lowered by 68 pounds. In contrast, yearly estimates for number of milk cows during 1983-1987 were lowered by an average of 31,000 animals with the estimate for 1988 moved up by 23,000. At the end of all this, we find that yearly estimates of total national milk production for 1983 through 1988 were increased for one year (1987) and decreased for the rest. On balance, this represents an average downward revision of 133 million pounds, or less than one-tenth of 1% of the average milk production during this period. The 1989 revisions, however, were on a much greater scale, perhaps reflecting that the 1989 numbers being revised were the first round, preliminary numbers, while the 1983 to 1988 numbers had already been revised at least once before. The 1989 U.S. revised production per cow was 114 pounds lower than previously reported. Cow numbers were unchanged, leaving total milk production 1.09 billion pounds lower.
A.E. Ext. 90-12
Charles H. Dyson School of Applied Economics and Management, Cornell University