eCommons

 

Travel time estimation for ambulances using Bayesian data augmentation

Other Titles

Abstract

Estimates of ambulance travel times on road networks are critical for effective ambulance base placement and real-time ambulance dispatching. We introduce new methods for estimating the distribution of travel times on each road segment in a city, using Global Positioning System (GPS) data recorded during ambulance trips. Our preferred method uses a Bayesian model of the ambulance trips and GPS data. Due to sparseness and error in the GPS data, the exact ambulance paths and travel times on each road segment are unknown. To estimate the travel time distributions using the GPS data, we must also estimate each ambulance path. This is called the map-matching problem. We consider the unknown paths and travel times to be missing data, and simultaneously estimate them and the parameters of each road segment travel time distribution using Bayesian data augmentation. We also introduce two alternative estimation methods using GPS speed data that are simple to implement in practice. We test the predictive accuracy of the three methods on a subregion of Toronto, using simulated data and data from Toronto EMS. All three methods perform well. Point estimates of ambulance trip durations from the Bayesian method outperform estimates from the alternative methods by roughly 5% in root mean squared error. Interval estimates from the Bayesian method for the Toronto EMS data are substantially better than interval estimates from the alternative methods. Map-matching estimates from the Bayesian method are robust to large GPS location errors, and interpolate well between widely spaced GPS points.

Journal / Series

Volume & Issue

Description

Sponsorship

National Science Foundation

Date Issued

2011-07-08

Publisher

Keywords

Reversible jump; Markov chain

Location

Effective Date

Expiration Date

Sector

Employer

Union

Union Local

NAICS

Number of Workers

Committee Chair

Committee Co-Chair

Committee Member

Degree Discipline

Degree Name

Degree Level

Related Version

Related DOI

Related To

Related Part

Based on Related Item

Has Other Format(s)

Part of Related Item

Related To

Related Publication(s)

Link(s) to Related Publication(s)

References

Link(s) to Reference(s)

Previously Published As

Government Document

ISBN

ISMN

ISSN

Other Identifiers

Rights

Rights URI

Types

article

Accessibility Feature

Accessibility Hazard

Accessibility Summary

Link(s) to Catalog Record