ENERGY SYSTEM IMPACTS OF HEATING SYSTEM ELECTRIFICATION IN NEW YORK STATE

Abstract

New York State (NYS) has taken a leadership role in deep decarbonization by passing the Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act (CLCPA), which commits New York to reach net-zero greenhouse gas emissions and requires 40 percent emissions reductions from 1990 levels by 2030 and 85 percent emissions reductions by 2050. As is in other cold-climate regions, heating in the residential and commercial sectors is the single largest end-use category in New York State. And over 80 percent of the heating-related energy consumption comes from the onsite combustion of fossil fuels dominated by natural gas and fuel oil. Electricity-driven heating technologies such as air-source and ground-source heat pumps provide a viable pathway to decarbonize the heating sector as they can integrate with renewable electricity generation such as wind and solar. However, the main challenges to electricity-driven heating arise from its impact on the power system, notably from an increase in winter peak electricity demand in the distribution networks. By using optimization models and statistical techniques, this thesis estimates that the total heating electricity demand arising from converting fossil fuel heating systems to electric heating systems in the NYS residential and commercial sectors is about 48 percent more than the current requirement. The results show a clear shift from summer peak to winter peak due to heating system electrification in NYS. Additionally, we show some heating electrification scenarios using different heat pump models. Scenarios using various heat pump adoption rates based on studies that support heating system electrification in the state and surrounding areas were also developed. The findings of the study are of importance to state and local policymakers and energy market participants. This quantification will help the policymakers in taking more defined steps towards developing resilient energy systems, building energy-efficient buildings and heating systems, and empowering greater adoption of sustainable energy systems.