Evolution of Malls in the United States from 2010 to 2020: Evidence of Survival and Transaction

Abstract

Dramatic changes have taken place in the retail industry, and brick-and-mortar retail is facing severe challenges. This study empirically investigates the evolution of enclosed malls in the US from 2010 to 2020 by utilizing data from CoStar covering 1,556 enclosed malls, 130 thousand tenants, and 2,686 transactions. The overall market structure of enclosed malls is examined using the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI), and the result reveals the increasing level of concentration. The performance of enclosed malls is proxied by their survival, transaction, and valuation. The logit model and the hedonic pricing model are deployed to understand the implications of mall characteristics, tenant characteristics, market competition, and demography. The empirical result highlights the importance of mall size, age, renovation status, high-end anchor tenants, and experiential retailers to mall survival and valuation premium. The high level of market competition, household density, and household income imply a strong challenge to survival while boosting the valuation. This study analyzes the implications for retail investment and asset management concerning product design, tenant mix, and location strategy.