Three Essays on International Capital Markets
In this dissertation, I study several topics in international capital markets. Chapter 1 is a joint project with Matthew Baron and Jamil Rahman. We find evidence that large credit expansions interacted with rapid price run-ups have strong forecasting power for negative future returns. Growth stocks, stocks with high levels of analyst disagreement, and highly leveraged stocks are particularly vulnerable to the bust, with their respective factor portfolios significantly underperforming compared to their unconditional means. We show that by avoiding stocks with extreme exposures to the credit cycle, investors can partially mitigate the risks induced by a credit-fueled bubble. Given the strong predictive power of credit-fueled stock market booms for market crashes and factor portfolio spreads, Chapter 2 asks how institutional investors trade during these events. We find no evidence that institutional investors sell stocks in countries experiencing credit-fueled stock market booms. Domestic institutional investors are aggressive net buyers during booms while foreign investors are more cautious. Institutional investors buy growth stocks up to the boom’s peak but do not sell them after the peak. They also increase (decrease) their portfolio allocation towards low leverage (high leverage) stocks both before and after the peak of the credit-fueled stock market boom. This suggests that institutional investors are mindful of the risks credit booms pose, even if they increase their overall allocation towards a country experiencing a credit-fueled stock market boom. In Chapter 3, I show that gravity variables capture country level differences in exposure to global shocks. Currencies of countries which are geographically distant and culturally different have larger differences in exposure to global shocks and as such comove less. The explanatory power of gravity for currency comovement is also present in trade flows and financial linkages. Predicted values of trade flows and foreign debt holdings contain around 80% of the explanatory power of gravity variables for currency comovement.