Car Rental Downgrades: Impact on Customer Return Bookings
This thesis examines how vehicle downgrades influence customer loyalty in the car‐rental sector. Drawing on 81,672 Hertz airport rentals from 2,389 U.S. and Canadian locations (2011–2012), it links transaction records to counter notes that label each downgrade as firm‐initiated, customer‐requested, or unclear. Ordinary least squares models, incorporating airport fixed effects and customer‐clustered errors, estimate the probability that a renter returns within 365 days. Results reveal that a clearly explained, firm‐initiated downgrade raises repeat‐booking likelihood by nearly seven percentage points, while customer‐requested and unclear downgrades exhibit no significant effect. These findings provide large‐scale behavioral evidence for justice theory and the service‐recovery paradox, demonstrating that transparency and procedural fairness—rather than the occurrence of a service lapse itself—shape customer response. By replacing stated intentions with observed behavior, the study underscores the managerial value of clear frontline communication: a candid explanation at the moment of failure can transform operational friction into a loyalty‐building opportunity.