U.S. TRADE POLICY UNCERTAINTY AND COMMODITY MARKET SENTIMENT: A PUT-CALL RATIO ANALYSIS
This thesis analyzes the effect of Trade Policy Uncertainty (TPU) on trader sentiment in commodity markets. Sentiment is measured by the put-call ratio. Our model employs a Three-Stage Least Squares (3SLS) model to analyze the two-way interaction between TPU, the put-call ratio, and traders' positions. We focus on seven commodities—corn, soybeans, wheat, copper, silver, crude oil, and natural gas—over 2018–2025. It reveals that TPU impacts hedging demand, most notably in agricultural and metal markets. Inflation and volatility also play strong roles in how the markets behave. Different sectors react differently: agricultural markets are highly sensitive to TPU, metals respond to industrial and financial stimuli, and energy markets are more sensitive to price movements and speculation. These findings confirm the usefulness of the put-call ratio as a sentiment indicator during times of uncertain policy and also offer traders and policymakers useful insights in dealing with volatile trade conditions.