THE IMPACT OF U.S. STATEWIDE MINIMUM WAGE CHANGES ON FORMAL REMITTANCES SENT FROM THE UNITED STATES TO MEXICO
This thesis examines the relationship between statewide minimum wagechanges and formal remittance flows from the United States to Mexico be- tween 2012 and 2022. Using remittance data from the Central Bank of Mexico, Banxico, historical statewide minimum wage data from the United States De- partment of Labor, and a Two-Way Fixed Effects (TWFE) estimation strategy, I analyze whether changes in real, state-level minimum wages are associated with changes in the volume of remittances sent from each U.S. state to Mexico. The analysis is limited to formal remittances and does not account for informal transfers. This analysis is motivated by the substantial role of remittances in Mexico’s economy and the disproportionate concentration of Mexican workers in the U.S. working in low-wage industries, where earnings are especially sen- sitive to minimum wage rates. While findings across five TWFE model specifi- cations are directionally consistent—suggesting a modest positive relationship between minimum wage increases and remittance levels—only two specifica- tions yield statistically significant results. Nevertheless, this research explains how state-level minimum wage rates in the U.S. may impact Mexican commu- nities that rely heavily on remittances and highlights opportunities for future work that integrates both quantitative and qualitative approaches in evaluating this relationship.