FINANCIALIZATION OF COMMODITY MARKETS: HOW SPECULATIVE ACTIVITY SHAPES COMMODITY SPOT PRICES
This thesis investigates the impact of speculative activity, quantified by the put-call ratio, and hedge fund and trader positions on commodity spot prices in two periods: pre-July 2008 and post-July 2008 commodity prices bubble. A three-stage least squares (3SLS) econometric model is used in study examining seven commodities: corn, copper, crude oil, natural gas, silver, soybeans, and wheat. The findings indicate a significant shift in market sentiment and speculative behavior post-July 2008, with a significant impact on spot prices, especially for oil and agricultural commodities. While trader positions directly show negligible effects, the put-call ratio (speculative activity) acts as a crucial predictor of spot price movements, underscoring the heightened sensitivity and volatility induced by financialization. The research highlights the dynamic between market sentiment, speculative trading, and fundamental macro-economic factors in the commodity markets.