THE ECONOMIC INFLUENCE OF COVID-2019 PANDEMIC IN CHINA: AN ANALYTICAL NETWORK PROCESS AND STRUCTURAL PATH ANALYSIS
The COVID-2019 epidemic originated in Wuhan city has spread to other countries around the world and developed into a global pandemic. With no doubt, the COVID-2019 pandemic will bring China’s economy downward with inexorable pressure. Therefore, this thesis aims to observe the economic transformation in China by analyzing the Social accounting Matrix (SAM) in 2007 and 2017, which were built based on the Input-output table issued by China Statistical Press. More importantly, we quantified the impact of COVID-2019 pandemic on China’s production sectors through Analytical Network Process (ANP) and multiplier analysis. Then, we analyzed the channels of transmission through which the COVID-2019 shock would be propagated through Structural Path Analysis (SPA). Over the decade from 2007 to 2017, the economic structure of China has changed significantly. For example, the aggregate productivity of China’s economy has improved. Besides, the tertiary industry was playing an increasingly important role in China’s economy and the aggregate Coefficient of Interdependence (COI) shows the sectoral interdependence of China’s economy has improved considerably. Also, the international COI reflects that China has been increasingly integrated into the global supply chain. Last but not least, the indicator study shows that the sector growth effect on household income distribution is being homogenized. In addition, the Analytical Network Process (ANP) measures the extent to which various production sectors are affected by the COVID-2019 epidemic. Combined with the Backward and Forward Linkage analysis of SAM, the final exogenous variables for SPA were recognized, which including the Farming sector, the coal mining and dressing sector, the postal sector, the animal food sector, the fertilizer sector, the Non-ferrous metal rolled products, the car-manufacturing sector, the construction sector, the catering sector, and the real estate sector. To better understanding the transmission mechanism of supply-side shock of COVID-2019 on household income and the demand-side shock on production sectors. A Structural Path Analysis (SPA) model was developed to analyze the transmission mechanism of the COVID-2019 economic impact. The results of supply-side shock SPA show that the most impacted household is the Urban high-income households and the least impacted household is the Rural low-income households. The production sector will impact the household income mainly through the labor, land capital and non-land capital factors. Besides, the social security sector plays a surprisingly important role in affecting household income, which mainly because of the rapid development of China’s social security system. Moreover, the results of demand-side shock of SPA show that consumption of the rural low-income households has the greatest impact on the market, while the consumption of urban high-income households has the least impact on the market. And the construction sector is found to be most adversely affected by the household spending. However, because the household incomes in SAM table are aggregate income but not income per capita, the influence of Covid-2019 epidemic on household income distribution cannot be derived from this study.