The Dynamics of Food Budget Shares in India: Disentangling Temporal and Distributional Variation
This study examines the evolution of India’s food consumption over two decades using harmonized data from three nationally representative Household Consumption Expenditure Surveys (2004–05, 2011–12, 2023–24). Engel curves are estimated by survey round and income quintile, and food-group budget shares are modeled via Seemingly Unrelated Regressions (SUR) to capture temporal and distributional variation. Engel’s Law is confirmed, with food’s share declining as income rises, driven by reductions in cereal and pulse expenditure. Bennett’s Law receives partial support, as gains in nutrient-dense foods are countered by rapid growth in processed food consumption, reflecting shifts in supply chains, urbanization, and preferences. Flattening Engel curves and heterogeneous elasticities indicate uneven dietary transitions, showing that income growth alone does not guarantee healthier diets. The analysis integrates non-parametric, parametric, segmented, and system-of-equations approaches, offering a temporally and distributionally nuanced view of India’s changing food demand. The findings highlight the need for policies improving lower-income access to nutritious foods and addressing diet quality among the affluent.