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  4. TRANSFORMATION OF U.S. FOOD SYSTEM ELECTRICITY USE: MODELING EMISSIONS REDUCTION

TRANSFORMATION OF U.S. FOOD SYSTEM ELECTRICITY USE: MODELING EMISSIONS REDUCTION

File(s)
Williams_cornell_0058O_11522.pdf (2.67 MB)
Supplemental_info.xlsx (206.6 KB)
Permanent Link(s)
https://doi.org/10.7298/qgrh-p064
https://hdl.handle.net/1813/112164
Collections
Cornell Theses and Dissertations
Author
Williams, Henry
Abstract

To avoid significant negative climate change consequences, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) advises that global warming be limited to 1.5°C from pre- industrial times, a target adopted under the Paris Agreement framework. The University of Maryland Center for Global Sustainability suggests that the U.S. would remain consistent with the IPCC target by reducing emissions 51% below 2005 levels by 2030, or 44.8% below 2012 levels, my base year. This paper examines the changes necessary in primary energy sources in order for the U.S. agri-food system to reduce its emissions from electricity use by 44.8% from 2012 to 2030. First, an environmental input-output (EIO) model is used to determine electricity consumption associated with different activities, commodities, and final uses within the U.S. food system. Additionally, electricity consumption is disaggregated by primary energy source, to which emissions levels are attributed using life cycle emissions estimates. Second, the EIO model output serves as an input into two optimization problems. Subject to the same constraints on energy use and total emissions, the first problem minimizes the cost of meeting the emissions target, while the second minimizes the change from existing electricity consumption patterns. United States Energy Information Agency (EIA) projections through 2030 for the growth of fossil-fuels, renewable energies, and nuclear are key data parameters for the optimization constraints. Given the EIA projections, my principal finding is that the U.S. food system is not on track to reduce emissions from electricity use in a manner consistent with the 1.5°C target. That is, the optimization problems cannot yield a feasible solution given the projected growth of each energy source used for electricity generation. However, solutionsfor both problems become feasible by relaxing the energy type constraint—adding eight percentage points to the EIA projected growth for all energy types. The paper concludes with a discussion of policy implications, model limitations, and the potential for future research.

Description
103 pages
Supplemental file(s) description: Complete data for three-dimensional results by energy, supply chain, and food.
Date Issued
2022-08
Keywords
climate change
•
environmental input-output models
•
food system emissions
•
input-output models
•
life cycle analysis
•
optimization problems
Committee Chair
Gomez, Miguel I.
Committee Member
Rudik, Ivan
Degree Discipline
Applied Economics and Management
Degree Name
M.S., Applied Economics and Management
Degree Level
Master of Science
Rights
Attribution 4.0 International
Rights URI
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Type
dissertation or thesis
Link(s) to Catalog Record
https://newcatalog.library.cornell.edu/catalog/15578986

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