Understanding the Effectiveness of FTRs in Hedging Congestion for Variable Renewables: The Case of Mexico
This thesis examines whether Financial Transmission Rights (FTRs) provide effective congestion risk hedging for variable renewable energy (VRE) generators in the Mexican Wholesale Electricity Market. As wind and solar deployment expands across zones with limited transmission capacity, congestion increasingly depresses the value of Locational Marginal Prices (LMPs), reducing revenues and exposing VREs to volatile market conditions. Using hourly data on LMPs, generation, and permit-level information from 2016 to 2024, this study compares generation-weighted LMPs against zonal averages and decomposes deviations into energy, congestion, and loss components. The findings reveal that in several of the analyzed zones, congestion plays an important role in weighing down LMPs, while FTRs, as currently designed, offer limited protection due to payout asymmetries and path-direction potential reversals. Moreover, despite a legal framework in place, Mexico has not held FTR auctions since the start of market operations in 2016, leaving participants without key tools for managing congestion exposure. The thesis concludes that a more robust FTR framework, combined with grid expansion and credible long-term signals, is essential to support VRE integration and unlock the country’s renewable potential.