The combination of increasing demand for food and improving food system market integration suggests that great opportunities may exist for a supply-side response amongst rural smallholder farmers, especially in Sub Saharan Africa, with its large gaps between existing and potential crop yields. With limited evidence, it is unclear how smallholders participate or if they benefit from participation in these new market opportunities. In this paper, these questions are examined in the context of dairy production and sales in Kenya. Analysis of welfare household asset dynamics highlights a strong association between high milk sales levels and improved welfare, but the causal direction is not evident. Qualitative findings suggest that more capable farmers with higher capacity to manage risks and make costly investments are the ones that are able to achieve and maintain high production and sales levels.