Cornell University
Library
Cornell UniversityLibrary

eCommons

Help
Log In(current)
  1. Home
  2. College of Engineering
  3. Master of Engineering (M.Eng.) Projects
  4. A Production Cost Model for Long-term Power Price Correlation Forecasting

A Production Cost Model for Long-term Power Price Correlation Forecasting

File(s)
sampleThesis.pdf (2.14 MB)
Main article
Permanent Link(s)
https://hdl.handle.net/1813/34896
Collections
Master of Engineering (M.Eng.) Projects
Author
Bass, Brandon
Abstract

Medium and long-term electricity price forecasting in deregulated power markets is important to market operators and participants. Lack of access to detailed system information and uncertainty in changing market pressures including fuel price, generation additions and retirements, changes in demand, and transmission additions compound the difficulties of accurately predicting market dynamics. Increasing penetration of renewable resources can affect the market in unpredictable ways. We seek to develop a highly parallelizable production cost model capable of forecasting long-term price dynamics under a variety of market scenarios. Using this framework, uncertainty in inter- and intra-regional market dynamics can be quantified using Monte-Carlo simulation. The framework was tested using a reduced model of the ERCOT power market. Estimation methods were tested for generator heat rate and intra-regional wind capacity factor, and compared the results to historical LMP data for the year 2011. Areas for future improvement were identified for the wind capacity factor estimation method, as well as the model as a whole moving forward.

Sponsorship
Altenex
Date Issued
2013-12-29
Keywords
forecasting
•
electricity
Type
article
dissertation or thesis

Site Statistics | Help

About eCommons | Policies | Terms of use | Contact Us

copyright © 2002-2026 Cornell University Library | Privacy | Web Accessibility Assistance