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  6. VALUING ELECTRICITY ASSETS IN DEREGULATED MARKETS: A REAL OPTIONS MODEL WITH MEAN REVERSION AND JUMPS

VALUING ELECTRICITY ASSETS IN DEREGULATED MARKETS: A REAL OPTIONS MODEL WITH MEAN REVERSION AND JUMPS

File(s)
Cornell_Dyson_wp9903.pdf (1.18 MB)
Permanent Link(s)
https://hdl.handle.net/1813/58044
Collections
Dyson School Working Papers
Author
Ethier, Robert G.
Abstract

Valuation of electricity generating assets is of central importance as utilities are forced to spin-off generators with the introduction of competitive markets. A continuous-time mean reverting price path with stochastic upward jumps is proposed as an appropriate model for long-run competitive electricity prices faced by a generator. A real options model is derived via dynamic programming using infinite series solutions. The derived model produces asset values which are uniformly higher than those produced by existing models, and which accurately predict observed generator sale prices. The model has favorable implications for stranded cost recovery and generator entry in competitive markets.

Description
WP 1999-03 February 1999
Date Issued
1999-02-01
Publisher
Charles H. Dyson School of Applied Economics and Management, Cornell University
Keywords
real options
•
electricity deregulation
•
mean reversion
•
jump processes
•
asset valuation
Type
article

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