A Multi-Agent Policy Simulation System for Housing Market Dynamics: Housing Price Prediction in Seoul Using Policy and Behavioral Data
The housing market is an important component of the urban system, and its transaction volumes and price levels are influenced by various factors; among these, housing policy and homebuyer behavioral choices are significant factors beyond structured housing information. Existing studies mostly conduct evaluations after policy implementation, making it difficult to compare different schemes during the policy formulation stage, explain the differentiated reactions across different regions and population groups, or provide guidance for adjustment directions before policies are introduced. Taking the Seoul housing market as the research object, this study constructs a policy deduction framework for a dynamic multi-agent strategic simulation system. In terms of modeling, the study integrates three variable systems: structured housing transaction data, policy text information, and homebuyer behavior simulation.The system is constructed based on 2013 data and validated on independent 2014 data to prevent data leakage, while also being used to simulate spatiotemporal changes in the housing market under different policy scenarios.