Preemptive Coercion: The Authoritarian Politics of Informal Settlement Governance in China
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This three-paper dissertation explores the evolving dynamics of how the Chinese state manages and controls informal settlements and urban spaces, and how these spaces impact the interaction between the state and society. It empirically focuses on contemporary China. The three interconnected studies investigate the authorities' hidden intention of political control in their demolition of informal settlements, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the surveillance institutions within informal settlements, and the public resistance shaped by urban spaces. Methodologically, it adopts a mix of qualitative and quantitative methods, including remote sensing data analysis, text analysis, design-based inference, interviews with urban planners and informal settlers, and participant observations. The first paper introduces the concept of preemptive coercion to explain the reasons behind the government's demolition of informal settlements. It argues that a significant yet underexamined reason is the autocratic pursuit of political control. The illegible spatial structure of informal settlements amplifies autocrats' concerns about unnoticed threats, even in the absence of overt large-scale resistance. To provide compelling evidence, it looks into Beijing's demolition from 2017 to 2018. Based on a unique dataset of 320 demolished and undemolished informal settlements extracted from satellite imagery, I demonstrate that the geographical proximity of an informal settlement to state apparatus and its inclusion of public spaces make it harder for autocrats to monitor, thereby increasing the likelihood of its demolition. The second study examines how the COVID-19 pandemic has influenced surveillance strategies in informal settlements. It introduces the concept of cascading expansion to explain the shift from untargeted coercion to targeted surveillance, driven by bureaucratic expansion rather than limitations of previous methods. The analysis, based on 159 townships in Beijing in 2019 and 2023, uncovers a causal relationship: townships experiencing more COVID-19 outbreaks increased their information collection about informal settlers, leading to a decrease in demolition rates. The effectiveness of this shift depends on the timing of surveillance institution establishment, particularly when autocrats had access to relatively adequate resources. The final study explores the emergence of public criticism during China's COVID-19 lockdowns, particularly the less noticed aspect before the occurrence of the White Paper Protests in November 2022. It demonstrates how urban space enabled grievance sharing among informal settlers, urban residents, and state agents, particularly given the tightened control in cyberspace. Drawing on 11 months of fieldwork in Beijing and Shanghai, the study identifies three mechanisms through which urban spaces facilitate these conversations: conflicts between commercial activities and state control, the fostering of independent networks, and the unintended consequences of pandemic regulations. Together, these studies provide a nuanced understanding of how the Chinese state navigates the challenges of urban governance, political control, and societal legibility in the face of economic downturns, technological change and unexpected crises.