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  7. Bubbles, Post-Crash Dynamics, and the Housing Market

Bubbles, Post-Crash Dynamics, and the Housing Market

File(s)
2014_Liu_Bubbles.pdf (2.05 MB)
Permanent Link(s)
https://hdl.handle.net/1813/70914
Collections
Cornell Real Estate and Finance Working Papers
Author
Liu, Crocker H.
Nowak, Adam
Rosenthal, Stuart
Abstract

This paper documents and explains previously unrecognized post-crash dynamics following the collapse of a housing market bubble. Although home prices in Phoenix doubled 2004-2006, the relative price of small-to-large homes remained strikingly constant. That changed following the crash when small-home relative prices fell up to 80 percent. We argue that post-crash exit of speculative developers allowed relative prices to diverge while differences in demand elasticities and turnover associated with job loss pushed small-home values down relative to large homes. As speculative developers return relative prices should revert back to pre-boom levels, consistent with mean reversion that began in 2011. The implied post-crash mispricing of homes can be mitigated if cities publish size-stratified home price indexes.

Date Issued
2014-01-10
Keywords
Cornell
•
housing market
•
home price indexes
•
bubbles
Rights
Required Publisher Statement: © Cornell University. This report may not be reproduced or distributed without the express permission of the publisher.
Type
article

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