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Climate Change and Cropland Allocation

File(s)
Liu_cornell_0058O_11833.pdf (18.26 MB)
Permanent Link(s)
https://doi.org/10.7298/7bgv-ff88
https://hdl.handle.net/1813/114476
Collections
Cornell Theses and Dissertations
Author
Liu, Tianzi
Abstract

This paper studies a critical margin of agricultural adaptation to climate change: how farmers’ planting decisions have adapted to climate change in the US. By linking a newly-compiled panel of profits and yields for nine major crops with county-level temperature data, I provide the empirical estimate of the cropland allocation elasticity to climate change. I design a novel two-stage method that separates the temperature-affected yields from profit and other unobserved factors under a discrete choice model. The estimation yields an allocation elasticity of 2.5, suggesting that a 1% increase in the temperature-affected yield ratio would lead to about a 2.5% increase in the land allocation ratios between two crops. When elasticities are estimated by individual annual cross-sections, the allocation elasticities display significant correlations with the national growing-season average temperature, suggesting decreasing adaptation intensity with rising temperatures. Our findings reveal a trade-off where farmers are allocating land to crops with less damage from the weather rather than higher yields, indicating passive adaptation. Cropland allocation alone is insufficient to mitigate the damage caused by climate change, highlighting the importance of other adaptation and mitigation practices.

Description
61 pages
Date Issued
2023-08
Committee Chair
Ortiz Bobea, Ariel
Committee Member
Gomez, Miguel
Rudik, Ivan
Degree Discipline
Applied Economics and Management
Degree Name
M.S., Applied Economics and Management
Degree Level
Master of Science
Rights
Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International
Rights URI
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
Type
dissertation or thesis
Link(s) to Catalog Record
https://newcatalog.library.cornell.edu/catalog/16219347

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