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  5. Future Earnings Growth Volatility and the Value Premium

Future Earnings Growth Volatility and the Value Premium

File(s)
Steiner19_Future_earning_growth.pdf (217.22 KB)
Permanent Link(s)
https://hdl.handle.net/1813/71318
Collections
SHA Conference Proceedings, Presentations, and Speeches
Author
Alcock, Jamie
Steiner, Eva
Tan, Kelvin Jui Keng
Abstract

The value premium is well established in empirical asset pricing, but to date there is little understanding as to its fundamental drivers. We use a stochastic earnings valuation model to establish a direct link between the volatility of future earnings growth and firm value. We illustrate that risky earnings growth affects growth and value firms differently. We provide empirical evidence that the volatility of future earnings growth is a significant determinant of the value premium. Using data on individual firms and characteristic-sorted test portfolios, we also find that earnings growth volatility is significant in explaining the cross-sectional variation of stock returns. Our findings imply that the value premium is the rational consequence of accounting for risky earnings growth in the firm valuation process.

Date Issued
2011-12-01
Keywords
asset pricing
•
Fama-French factor model
Rights
Required Publisher Statement: Copyright held by the authors.
Type
conference papers and proceedings

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