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  4. Comparison of Time-Dependent Sequential Logit and Cox Proportional Hazards Models for Hurricane Evacuation with a Focus on the Use of Evolving Forecast Information

Comparison of Time-Dependent Sequential Logit and Cox Proportional Hazards Models for Hurricane Evacuation with a Focus on the Use of Evolving Forecast Information

File(s)
Wang_cornell_0058O_10219.pdf (417.68 KB)
Permanent Link(s)
https://doi.org/10.7298/X4HQ3X48
https://hdl.handle.net/1813/59134
Collections
Cornell Theses and Dissertations
Author
Wang, Shuo
Abstract

Hurricane is a natural disaster which could cause many deaths and considerable damage if improper emergency management was applied. Figuring out an efficient method to dynamically forecast the hurricane evacuation demand with high accuracy plays a crucial role in preparedness work of hurricane management. Recently, substantial studies and research exit on understanding hurricane evacuation behavior. However, in this thesis, some forecast covariates which were not mentioned before, are introduced into the prediction of hurricane evacuation rate. Moreover, two travel demand models are applied in this study: A Sequential Logit Model and a Cox proportional hazards model. These two models are used for estimating the probability of each household to evacuate in the specific time step. After applying the data from Hurricane Gustav (2008) in Louisiana, over 76% households’ dynamic evacuation behavior are predicted correctly.

Date Issued
2017-12-30
Keywords
Civil engineering
Committee Chair
Nozick, Linda K.
Committee Member
Gao, Huaizhu
Degree Discipline
Civil and Environmental Engineering
Degree Name
M.S., Civil and Environmental Engineering
Degree Level
Master of Science
Type
dissertation or thesis

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