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  6. A New Look at the Trade Volume Effects of Real Exchange Rate Risk

A New Look at the Trade Volume Effects of Real Exchange Rate Risk

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Cornell_Dyson_wp0241.pdf (588.42 KB)
Permanent Link(s)
https://hdl.handle.net/1813/58029
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Dyson School Working Papers
Author
Wang, Kai-Li
Barrett, Christopher B.
Abstract

This paper takes a new empirical look at the longstanding question of the effect of exchange rate volatility on international trade flows by studying the case of Taiwan's exports to the United States from 1989-1998. In particular, we employ sectoral level, monthly data and a multivariate GARCH-M estimator with corrections for leptokurtic errors that is consistent with the core hypothesis that traders' forward contracting behavior might be affected by exchange rate risk. We find that real exchange rate risk has insignificant effects in most sectors, although agricultural trade volumes appear highly responsive to real exchange rate volatility. These results differ significantly from those obtained using more conventional and restrictive modeling assumptions.

Description
WP 2002-41 November 2002
Date Issued
2002-11
Publisher
Charles H. Dyson School of Applied Economics and Management, Cornell University
Type
article

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