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  4. An Analysis of the Consumption Demand Data on The DLA's Lead-time Forecast Accuracy

An Analysis of the Consumption Demand Data on The DLA's Lead-time Forecast Accuracy

File(s)
2005 MEng Project Report - LMI.pdf (1.31 MB)
2005 MEng Project Report - LMI
2005 MEng Project Presentation - LMI.pdf (781.31 KB)
2005 MEng Project Presentation - LMI
Permanent Link(s)
https://hdl.handle.net/1813/1342
Collections
Master of Engineering (M.Eng.) Projects
Author
Kumar, Vivek
Robert, Lo
Linda, Tsang
Abstract

The Defense Logistics Agency generates forecasts for demand from military service warehouses (wholesale demand) using a double exponential smoothing (DES) forecasting model. However, the Agency will be moving to a Fourier forecasting model, which explicitly accounts for seasonality in demand data. We found that obtaining additional demand data from the military maintenance centers (consumption demand) will improve lead-time forecast accuracy in both forecasting models. In addition, we found that different incorporations of the consumption demand data are needed depending on the accuracy metric utilized.

Sponsorship
LMI AND THE DLA WEAPON SYSTEM SUSTAINMENT PROGRAM
Date Issued
2005-05-20T12:50:09Z
Keywords
forecast
•
forecast accuracy
•
fourier
•
double exponential smoothing
Type
article
dissertation or thesis

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