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  4. WAR AND COMMODITIES Investigating the impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on the wheat futures complex

WAR AND COMMODITIES Investigating the impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on the wheat futures complex

File(s)
Xu_cornell_0058O_11750.pdf (998.34 KB)
VAR_results.xlsx (13.15 KB)
wheat_price.xlsx (35.96 KB)
Commodities_and_War.trade.xlsx (74.65 KB)
Permanent Link(s)
https://doi.org/10.7298/stg8-gk83
https://hdl.handle.net/1813/113969
Collections
Cornell Theses and Dissertations
Author
Xu, Wenhao
Abstract

The current Russia-Ukraine war (2022-2023) poses challenges to wheat prices worldwide, and the price shock for the grain was a massive blow to countries that depend on wheat imports. This study aims to investigate how the effects of war including blockades, embargoes, and import quotas affect the welfare and price causality effects of regional and international wheat markets. We used time series futures data of Ukrainian wheat, Black Sea wheat, and CME wheat from May 2021 to February 2023 to analyze the changes in Granger causality measures of prices among wheat futures contracts traded on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), including Ukrainian Wheat (KVH23) and Black Sea Wheat (FH23). We found that at the beginning of the war, around March 2022, there was a statistically significant temporal sequential prediction relationship between the three kinds of wheat under the influence of war. However, leading up to and following the start of the war, our vector autoregression (VAR) results indicated that historical Granger relationships were fractured. We conclude that the most enduring impact is the breakdown and realignment of historical trade relationships.

Description
Supplemental file(s) description: None.
Date Issued
2023-05
Keywords
Granger Causality
•
Russia-Ukraine War
•
spatial equilibrium model
•
wheat futures
Committee Chair
Turvey, Calum
Committee Member
de Gorter, Harry
Degree Discipline
Applied Economics and Management
Degree Name
M.S., Applied Economics and Management
Degree Level
Master of Science
Type
dissertation or thesis
Link(s) to Catalog Record
https://newcatalog.library.cornell.edu/catalog/16176657

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