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  4. PRICE AND VOLATILITY LINKAGES BETWEEN NATURAL GAS, FERTILIZER (UREA), CORN, AND WHEAT MARKETS USING A VAR-DCC-GARCH MODEL: UNCERTAINTIES DURING THE UKRAINE WAR

PRICE AND VOLATILITY LINKAGES BETWEEN NATURAL GAS, FERTILIZER (UREA), CORN, AND WHEAT MARKETS USING A VAR-DCC-GARCH MODEL: UNCERTAINTIES DURING THE UKRAINE WAR

File(s)
Duan_cornell_0058O_12364.pdf (537.18 KB)
Permanent Link(s)
https://doi.org/10.7298/69ck-m569
https://hdl.handle.net/1813/117423
Collections
Cornell Theses and Dissertations
Author
Duan, Bohua
Abstract

Motivated by extreme commodity price fluctuations during the 2022 Ukraine war, this study examines price and volatility linkages among natural gas, fertilizer (urea), corn, and wheat markets from 2017 to 2025. It employs a VAR-DCC-GARCH model to capture dynamic spillovers and time-varying correlations, identifying shifting inter-market linkages under war-induced uncertainty. Results indicate that volatility linkages strengthened significantly after the war’s onset in February 2022: cross-market volatility correlations increased, especially between corn and fertilizer prices, while wheat’s volatility connections remained comparatively muted. Natural gas and fertilizer markets also became more tightly coupled post-2021, reflecting heightened integration amid geopolitical risk. War-driven uncertainty markedly amplified volatility spillovers across the energy–fertilizer–grain complex. These findings highlight the war’s amplifying effect on commodity market linkages and carry critical implications for global food security and commodity market stability, underscoring the need for risk management strategies to safeguard supply chains under future crises.

Description
39 pages
Date Issued
2025-05
Keywords
Agricultural input shocks
•
Commodity volatility spillovers
•
Fertilizer and crop price linkages
•
Natural gas and urea markets
•
Ukraine war and food security
•
VAR-DCC-GARCH
Committee Chair
Turvey, Calum
Committee Member
Gomez, Miguel
Degree Discipline
Applied Economics and Management
Degree Name
M.S., Applied Economics and Management
Degree Level
Master of Science
Type
dissertation or thesis
Link(s) to Catalog Record
https://newcatalog.library.cornell.edu/catalog/16938366

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