THE IMPACTS OF TRANSITIONING TO ELECTRIC VEHICLES ON U.S. ETHANOL AND CORN MARKETS
This thesis employs a two-stage least-squares econometric model of national ethanol demand and supply to evaluate the impact of rising electric vehicle (EV) sales on the corn-ethanol market. Using the econometric model, two simulations are conducted for 2023-2030. Both simulate corn prices, ethanol prices, and supply if projections of the EVs and gas-only vehicles change. All other demand/supply variables remained constant in one simulation and changed based on projections in the other. Experts project a surge of EV sales by 2030, which applied to the simulations suggest ethanol prices to fall from $2.61 in 2022 to between $1.42 and $1.93 in 2030, corn prices to decrease from $7.31 in 2022 to between $4.92 and $5.28 in 2030, and ethanol supply to fall from 6.74 billion gallons in 2022 to between 4 and 6.7 billion gallons in 2030. Results suggest that raising EV sales negatively impacts the corn-ethanol market.