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  4. A Vulnerability Index for U.S. State Economies: Climate Change Impacts on GDP

A Vulnerability Index for U.S. State Economies: Climate Change Impacts on GDP

File(s)
Jiang_cornell_0058O_12361.pdf (415.71 KB)
Permanent Link(s)
https://doi.org/10.7298/b7nt-bs97
https://hdl.handle.net/1813/117438
Collections
Cornell Theses and Dissertations
Author
Jiang, Yuxi
Abstract

This study examines how short-term variations in temperature and precipitation affect the economic resilience of U.S. states, using quarterly real GDP as the outcome of interest. To address this, we adopt the single-index polymorphic production function from Turvey, Du, He, and Ortiz-Bobea's (2021) study on vulnerability indices for crops under climate change, adapting this polymorphic production function for the analysis of state level economic vulnerability. This approach offers significant advantages in assessing economic vulnerability to climate change, as it utilizes a single index to capture a range of climate responses, including plateau effects. Specifically, it identifies plateau effects within the relationship between state level economic production and weather conditions, while also providing fits that are consistent with higher-order polynomial modeling. To capture climate-independent factors, we include quarterly averages of temperature, and quarterly cumulative precipitation. As the dependent variable, we focus on quarterly real GDP. The paper also illustrates the computation of this index and discusses its potential use as a critical policy tool for understanding and mitigating economic vulnerability to climate change.

Description
42 pages
Date Issued
2025-05
Committee Chair
Turvey, Calum
Committee Member
Wang, Yu
Degree Discipline
Applied Economics and Management
Degree Name
M.S., Applied Economics and Management
Degree Level
Master of Science
Type
dissertation or thesis
Link(s) to Catalog Record
https://newcatalog.library.cornell.edu/catalog/16938379

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