New York's dairy industry is entering a period of significant growth, driven by roughly $3 billion in new and expanded dairy processing investment across the state. Meeting the resulting demand for milk, perhaps seven to eight billion or more additional pounds annually, raises key questions about how many more cows, and how much additional land, will be required. PRO-DAIRY researchers modeled three scenarios for reaching an additional 10 billion pounds of fat and protein corrected milk by the end of 2029: business-as-usual, moderate productivity growth and aggressive productivity growth. Results show that boosting milk production and feed efficiency per cow dramatically reduces the need for new animals and land for forage production: the business-as-usual scenario requires 250,000 additional cows and 500,000 additional forage acres, while the aggressive growth scenario could cover the demand with essentially no added cows or forage acres required. The authors suggest that New York's path forward lies in a middle strategy combining modest herd growth while accelerating gains in cow productivity by optimizing genetics, diets and management practices.