UNRAVELING COMMODITY MARKET DYNAMICS: INSIGHTS FROM CONVENIENCE YIELDS AND IMPLIED STORAGE COSTS
This thesis investigates convenience yields and storage costs across five major commodities—wheat, soybean, corn, crude oil, and natural gas—over the period from 2018 to 2023. Using an option-based approach and extensive data analysis, I examined the dynamics of commodity markets, identifying key factors influencing convenience yields such as supply and demand dynamics, geopolitical events, and market sentiment. Through regression analyses and examination of implied storage costs and the Working Curve, I studied relationships between convenience yields and variables including spot prices, futures prices, and interest rates. Findings also include insights into the relationship between storage supplied and the cost of storage. This research contributes to our understanding of commodity market efficiency, risk management strategies, and offers practical implications for investors navigating volatile commodity markets. Further research could explore drivers behind observed deviations and refine existing models for improved predictive accuracy.