Safety in Separation? Ethnic Demography and Violence in Kenya
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How best to distribute ethnic groups with a history of conflict to ensure peace? This question is central in the vast literature on violence and peace. Proposed solutions range from physical separation and long-term policing to increasing interactions and forming associational links. However, such divergent solutions are a product of differences in the scope of inquiry and the unit of analysis. Moving beyond the violence and peace dichotomy by examining various types of violence — death and displacement — at the unit where violence actually occurs —neighborhood level — helps avoid drawing generalized claims based on a unidimensional understanding of violence. Solely studying displacement, for instance, may misidentify a neighborhood as "peaceful" when, in reality, it may suffer from deaths. Using Kenya’s post-election violence (PEV) of 2007-08, this study argues that under two conditions – heightened ethnic salience and an exogenous shock – residential ethnic demography becomes another necessary condition. In highly polarized neighborhoods, displacement is more likely, while low-polarized ones are at a higher risk of death. The study not only finds small-N qualitative evidence for the argument but also reveals a distinct large-N quantitative pattern: micro-neighborhoods are more likely to experience death, whereas meso-neighborhoods are more likely to witness displacement, underscoring the importance of the unit of analysis. The nature of ethnic demography, which influences ethnic (in)security and the associated organizational needs, contributes to the emergence of different types of violence. The study employs a multi-method approach, combining an "in-depth" case study of Nakuru with a "breadth" study examining neighborhoods across Kenya, using original qualitative and quantitative data. It uses an original dataset of residential ethnic demography, creatively derived from middle and last names of Kenyans registered to vote in the 2007 elections, and an original dataset of different types of violence. In contrast to recommendations from unidimensional studies, there is no distribution of ethnic groups that would reduce their exposure to at least one type of violence. The study suggests that social engineering of ethnic group distribution is neither necessary nor sufficient. Instead, it places importance on preventing shocks in countries where ethnicity remains a potent tool of divisiveness.