Cornell University
Library
Cornell UniversityLibrary

eCommons

Help
Log In(current)
  1. Home
  2. Cornell SC Johnson College of Business
  3. Cornell Peter and Stephanie Nolan School of Hotel Administration
  4. Centers and Institutes
  5. Center for Real Estate and Finance
  6. Cornell Real Estate and Finance Working Papers
  7. The Dynamics of Credit Spreads in Hotel Mortgages and Signaling Implications

The Dynamics of Credit Spreads in Hotel Mortgages and Signaling Implications

File(s)
2011_Liu_Dynamics_credit_spread.pdf (580.87 KB)
Permanent Link(s)
https://hdl.handle.net/1813/70891
Collections
Cornell Real Estate and Finance Working Papers
Author
Liu, Crocker L.
Quan, Daniel C.
Ukhov, Andrey D.
Abstract

This paper investigates the loan pricing of risk in a market with short term leases (hotels) relative to longer term leases (office properties) with respect to how news on the economy, capital and real estate markets is incorporated in loan pricing using a vector autoregression (VAR) framework. The hotel loan pricing data provides a unique laboratory to study loan pricing adjustments given the short-term nature of the hotel leases. We examine the information content of hotel credit spreads in two stages. After establishing the impact of economic variables on loan pricing and the informational content of the incremental risk spread, we next examine how loan pricing adjusts in response to expected delinquencies. We find that improvement in general economic conditions, an increase in forward looking corporate profitability, an increase in capital availability and/or an increase in the demand for hotel services forecast a decline in the hotel risk premium differential. Thus, the relative loan prices—the spread—reflect systematic risk. We also find that hotel spreads themselves contain important economic information. Unexpected increases in hotel spreads predict hotel delinquencies. In other words, lenders appear to set interest rates on hotel mortgages in anticipation of hotel delinquencies and foreclosures in future periods. Lenders do not appear to consider past delinquencies in their setting their rate.

Date Issued
2011-09-25
Keywords
Cornell
•
hotel mortgages
•
vector autoregression
•
relative loan price
•
hotel leases
Related Version
An later version of this article is also available in eCommons.
Related To
https://hdl.handle.net/1813/71473
Rights
Required Publisher Statement: © Cornell University. This report may not be reproduced or distributed without the express permission of the publisher.
Type
article

Site Statistics | Help

About eCommons | Policies | Terms of use | Contact Us

copyright © 2002-2026 Cornell University Library | Privacy | Web Accessibility Assistance