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  4. Statistical Post-Processing of Ensemble WRF Forecasts for Microclimatic Regions in the U.S. Northeast

Statistical Post-Processing of Ensemble WRF Forecasts for Microclimatic Regions in the U.S. Northeast

File(s)
Alessi_cornell_0058O_10951.pdf (10.62 MB)
Permanent Link(s)
https://doi.org/10.7298/6gda-1b60
https://hdl.handle.net/1813/103044
Collections
Cornell Theses and Dissertations
Author
Alessi, Marc James
Abstract

This study utilizes the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) to produce 9 km and 3 km resolution forecasts from the Global Forecast System (GFS) model for microclimatic, agricultural regions in the U.S. Northeast. These forecasts are then statistically post-processed to generate probabilistic forecasts for temperature, specific humidity, incoming solar radiation, and precipitation. A comparison of forecast skill was conducted between these post-processed forecasts, the raw WRF output, the GFS forecasts, and forecasts from the National Weather Service’s National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD). Overall, significant improvement was observed in post-processed WRF forecasts over all other methods for all regions and variables. Furthermore, 9 km post-processed WRF had the same forecast skill as 3 km post-processed WRF, rendering 3 km WRF unnecessary if observational data is available. NDFD was found to be competitive with raw WRF for temperature, so that if observational data is unavailable for post-processing, the NDFD forecast method should be selected over running high resolution ensemble WRF.

Description
97 pages
Date Issued
2020-08
Keywords
Forecasting
•
Microclimate
•
Post-Processing
•
Vineyard
•
WRF
Committee Chair
Degaetano, Arthur T.
Committee Member
Ault, Toby Rollin
Steinschneider, Scott
Degree Discipline
Atmospheric Science
Degree Name
M.S., Atmospheric Science
Degree Level
Master of Science
Rights
Attribution 4.0 International
Rights URI
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Type
dissertation or thesis
Link(s) to Catalog Record
https://catalog.library.cornell.edu/catalog/13277737

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