THE RETURN THAT NEVER COMES: OCCUPATIONAL UNDERPLACEMENT AND THE REVISION OF TEMPORARY STAY INTENTIONS - EVIDENCE FROM THE GERMAN SOCIO-ECONOMIC PANEL
This thesis studies whether occupational underplacement is associated with migrants’ return intentions and long-term settlement. I develop a behavioral framework in which low-skill employment abroad can make return psychologicallycostly by turning return into a realization of status loss or failed migration. Using SOEP data, I first test whether true high-to-low occupational downgrading predicts non-realization of temporary stay intentions. This direct test is inconclusive. I then examine education–occupation mismatch among high-educated migrants. Migrants whose first observed temporary stay intention occurs while they are actually employed in low-skill jobs are more likely to later report permanent stay intentions, and this switch is often observed while they remain low-skill employed. The results provide reduced-form evidence that occupational underplacement is related to the evolution of stay intentions among migrants in Germany.