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  5. Regime Shifts in Asian Equity and Real Estate Markets

Regime Shifts in Asian Equity and Real Estate Markets

File(s)
Liu24_Regime_shifts.pdf (3.58 MB)
Permanent Link(s)
https://hdl.handle.net/1813/71520
Collections
SHA Articles and Chapters
Author
Kallberg, Jarl G.
Liu, Crocker H.
Pasquariello, Paolo
Abstract

This paper applies a new statistical technology for identifying regime shifts to analyze recent data on real estate and equity markets in eight developing Far Eastern countries in the 1992–1998 time period. We find that regime shifts in volatility occur in the summer of 1997; however, most of the regime shifts in returns occur in the spring of 1998. While the clustering of regime breaks does not seem to follow any obvious pattern, the country’s exposure to trade and firm leverage are important. An analysis of Granger causality suggests that, in most cases, equity returns cause real estate returns but the converse is not true. We also find two‐way causality in volatility, suggesting that a common factor drives volatility in these markets. Finally, we provide evidence that the regime shifts generally imply higher relative risk for real estate securities after the estimated breaks.

Date Issued
2002-01-01
Keywords
real estate markets
•
asset management
•
equity
•
Asia
•
risk analysis
Related DOI
https://doi.org/10.1111/1540-6229.00040
Rights
Required Publisher Statement: © Wiley. Final version published as: Kallberg, J. G., Liu, C. H., & Pasquariello, P. (2002). Regime shifts in Asian equity and real estate markets. Real Estate Economics, 30(2), 263-291. Reprinted with permission. All rights reserved.
Type
article

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