AI SIGNALING AND STARTUP VALUATION: EVIDENCE FROM LLM-BASED TEXT ANALYSIS
Artificial intelligence has become one of the most salient narratives in venture capital, yet it remains unclear whether stronger AI positioning translates into meaningfully different financing outcomes. This paper examines whether AI signaling predicts higher startup valuations and larger financing rounds. I construct an LLM-based AI signaling score by classifying the websites of 25,636 firms on a 1-5 scale that separates superficial AI claims from AI-dependent business models, and I merge these scores with PitchBook data. In the main valuation sample, AI-intensive startups receive post-money valuations that are 18.0% higher and last-round deal sizes that are 17.2% larger in the binary specification, conditional on organizational scale and detailed fixed effects. The premium is nonlinear and concentrated at the boundary between scores 3 and 4, with the largest effects among score 5 firms. It also becomes materially stronger after 2023, consistent with a narrative-amplified market response during the generative AI wave. In supplementary analysis, AI-intensive firms are less likely to exit and less likely to fail, suggesting that stronger AI signaling is associated with longer organizational runway. Overall, the results indicate that AI signaling predicts both higher valuations and larger capital deployment, with the premium concentrated among firms for which AI appears central to the business model.