A Vulnerability Index for Priority Targeting of Agricultural Crops with a Changing Climate
There is significant interest emerged on approaches to identify crops and regions that are vulnerable to climate change. We present a simple, single-indexed vulnerability indicator that can be used to map climate change ‘hot spots’ measured at the county level for corn, soybeans, spring wheat, and cotton for temperatures and rainfall. Our result shows few ‘hot spots’. While the majority of counties exhibits relatively low vulnerability indices, indicating that American farmers have already taken the initiative to plant crop varieties and hybrids that are resilient to climate change. Also, our results suggest that for the most counties there are broad plateaus over which crop yields vary little with respect to the weather variables, and the exceedance probabilities beyond threshold that define vulnerability are low.