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  5. Evaluating Stock Price Volatility: The Case of REITs

Evaluating Stock Price Volatility: The Case of REITs

File(s)
Liu87_Evaluating.pdf (462.03 KB)
Permanent Link(s)
https://hdl.handle.net/1813/71369
Collections
SHA Working Papers
Author
Kallberg, Jarl
Liu, Crocker H.
Srinivasan, Anand
Abstract

One of the most controversial topics in modem financial economics is "excess volatility:" the notion that stock prices move too much to be explained by fundamental economic and firm-specific factors. This article measures the degree of excess volatility in a special class of equities: real estate investment trusts (REITs). The structure of REITs, specifically, the constraints on dividend payout, the passive approach to asset management and the detailed data available on REIT composition, make them ideal for this investigation. The tests are conducted using the Shiller-West variance bounds methodology and by estimating the volatility of the underlying assets. We find that despite the absence of dividend smoothing behavior, REITs exhibit approximately the same level of excess volatility as determined in previous work in equities. This finding of excess volatility is confirmed in the second part of our analysis and confirms that dividend smoothing cannot explain excess volatility. Furthermore, it suggests that prices of securitized real estate vehicles like REITs follow a stochastic process that is very different from the process driving the underlying real assets.

Date Issued
1998-03-15
Keywords
financial economics
•
stock prices
•
REITs
•
dividends
•
smoothing
•
real estate equities
Rights
Required Publisher Statement: Copyright held by the authors.
Type
preprint

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