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  6. COMMODITY FUTURES PRICES AS FORECASTS

COMMODITY FUTURES PRICES AS FORECASTS

File(s)
Cornell_Dyson_wp9607.pdf (1.02 MB)
Permanent Link(s)
https://hdl.handle.net/1813/57725
Collections
Dyson School Working Papers
Author
Tomek, William G.
Abstract

Futures markets provide contemporaneous price quotations for a constellation of contracts, with maturities 30 or more months in the future, and a large literature exists about interpreting these prices as forecasts. It is often preferable to think of futures markets as determining a price level and price differences appropriate to the temporal definitions of the contracts. Futures prices can be efficient in reflecting a complex set of factors, but still be poor forecasters. Forecasts from quantitative models cannot improve upon efficient futures prices as forecasting agents; the models provide equally poor forecasts. Analogous ideas are discussed for basis forecasts.

Description
WP 1996-07 August 1996
Date Issued
1996-08-01
Publisher
Charles H. Dyson School of Applied Economics and Management, Cornell University
Type
article

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