Zoning With or Zoning Away? How Land Use Decisions Shape Wildfire Exposure and Housing Need in El Paso County, Colorado
Rapid population growth, drastic housing needs, and increasing wildfire risks—El Paso County tells a common story. Across the United States, states and local governments face two converging challenges: rising climate threats and an ongoing housing crisis. Local planners and governments play an important role, influencing both where and how we build our homes. This study investigates how nine jurisdictions within El Paso County, Colorado zone with and zone away from wildfire risk by using a two-part analysis that quantifies residential zoning capacity against wildfire risk and assesses how planning and zoning strategies integrate wildfire risk. I find that while the state and local jurisdictions have implemented successful zoning with policies—such as landscaping and building standards—to reduce residential vulnerability in the wildland-urban interface, there is still a gap: they aren’t meaningfully zoning away. With 27% of the county’s net zoning capacity in moderate-to-high risk areas and existing zoning constraining denser development in safer urban areas, the county’s land use trajectory deepens wildfire exposure even as individual homes become more resilient. Without deliberate planning and zoning reform, communities like El Paso County face a compounding crisis: more homes in harm’s way and few tools redirecting growth elsewhere.