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  7. Economic Linkages, Relative Scarcity, and Commodity Futures Returns

Economic Linkages, Relative Scarcity, and Commodity Futures Returns

File(s)
2013_Casassus_Economic_linkage.pdf (590.68 KB)
Permanent Link(s)
https://hdl.handle.net/1813/70906
Collections
Cornell Real Estate and Finance Working Papers
Author
Casassus, Jaime
Liu, Peng
Tang, Ke
Abstract

This paper shows that economic linkages among commodities create a source of long-term correlation between futures returns. We extend the Theory of Storage to a multi-commodity level and find that the convenience yield of a commodity depends not only on its own scarcity level, but also on its relative scarcity with respect to other economically-related commodities. This result implies a positive feedback effect from one commodity to another that is necessary to replicate the upward-sloping correlation term structure of futures returns observed from the related commodities. Our empirical Multi-Commodity Feedback Affine model (MCFA) allows for a flexible correlation term structure and validates our theoretical prediction. An out-of-sample test using short-maturity crack spread options data shows that our model considerably reduces the pricing error generated by traditional models.

Date Issued
2013-01-01
Keywords
Cornell
•
commodity futures
•
economic linkages
•
relative scarcity
•
correlation term structure
•
convenience yields
•
spread options
Related Version
An later version of this article is also available in eCommons.
Related To
https://hdl.handle.net/1813/72246
Rights
Required Publisher Statement: © Cornell University. This report may not be reproduced or distributed without the express permission of the publisher.
Type
article

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