An Economic Analysis of Aspects of Petroleum and Military Security in the Persian Gulf
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Author
Chapman, Duane
Knanna, Neha
Abstract
Geologic estimates of remaining global petroleum resources place about 50% in the North Sea and Alaska. Using mathematical methods derived from depletion theory, the present value of economic rent from oil is on the order of $20 trillion. Game theory is utilized to explain the $15-$20 per barrel price band that existed from 1986 to 1999. New economic forces have displaced this previously stable pattern; a new price range of $22 to $28 may be emerging. International trade in petroleum and conventional weapons are analyzed with econometric methods; the occurrence of nuclear weapons capability in the Persian Gulf region is explored.
Description
WP 2000-07 April 2000
Date Issued
2000-04-11
Publisher
Charles H. Dyson School of Applied Economics and Management, Cornell University
Type
article