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Analyst Forecasts and Price/Earnings Ratios

File(s)
Carvell4_Analyst_Forecast___Post.pdf (483.49 KB)
Permanent Link(s)
https://hdl.handle.net/1813/71638
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SHA Articles and Chapters
Author
Pari, Robert
Carvell, Steven A.
Sullivan, Timothy
Abstract

[Excerpt] Security valuation techniques have become increasingly sophisticated, as evidenced by advances in option pricing theory and Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT). Despite the availability of these paradigms, the price/earnings (P/E) approach to security valuation has maintained its popularity among practicing security analysts. Much of this lasting popularity can be attributed to the apparent simplicity of the P/E approach and the difficulties inherent in implementing complex valuation models. To implement the P/E approach, analysts must estimate the appropriate P/E multiple, which typically requires the development of a model. Unfortunately, most of the P/E models that have been developed use ad hoc empirical tests and historical data. One notable exception is a study by Cragg and Malkiel, which tested a theoretical P/E model using analysts' forecasts for a nonrandom sample of 175 large firms. This note extends the work of Cragg and Malkiel in two ways. First, it is not restricted to large firms; all firms with complete data are included in the empirical tests. Second, the model includes some factors not considered by other researchers.

Date Issued
1989-01-01
Keywords
security valuation
•
price/earnings ratios
•
analyst forecasts
Related DOI
https://doi.org/10.2469/faj.v45.n2.60
Rights
Required Publisher Statement: © CFA Institute. Final version published as: Pari, R., Carvell, S., & Sullivan, T. (1989). Analyst forecasts and price/earnings ratios. Financial Analysts Journal, 45(2), 60-62. Reprinted with permission. All rights reserved.
Type
article

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