Recent College Graduates Recent college graduates in the U.S. labor force: data from the Current Population Survey Data collected each October in the School Enrollment Supplement to the Current Population Survey provide an annual snapshot of the demographic characteristics, labor force activity, and school enrollment status of each year’s cohort of recent college graduates Thomas Luke Spreen Every year, thousands of recent viding information about employment and graduates of colleges and universi- unemployment in the United States. The U.S. ties across the United States enter Census Bureau conducts the CPS each month the labor force with newly minted degrees for the BLS. The CPS provides labor force data and high hopes about their employment by a variety of demographic characteristics, in- prospects.1 In October 2011, 74.5 percent cluding educational attainment. Since January of the 1.3 million 2011 recent college 1992, educational attainment has been mea- graduates were employed, according to sured in the CPS by highest degree attained. data from the Current Population Sur- To collect additional data on the school vey (CPS). The unemployment rate for enrollment of children 3 to 14 years old and the 2011 cohort of recent college gradu- adults 15 years and older, the BLS, U.S. Cen- ates was 12.6 percent. CPS data also show sus Bureau, and National Center for Educa- variation in the labor force status of bach- tion Statistics (NCES) jointly sponsor the CPS elor’s and advanced degree recipients. School Enrollment Supplement, which is This article is the first from the Bureau administered annually in October. A question of Labor Statistics (BLS) to publish labor was added beginning with the October 1993 force data specifically for recent college supplement to determine the calendar year that graduates. The estimates presented in this respondents received their most recent post- article were generated from data collected secondary degree. This question was restricted in the October School Enrollment Supple- to respondents ages 15 to 29 who stated in the ment to the CPS. The analysis that follows monthly survey that they had an associate’s, describes the demographic characteristics, bachelor’s, master’s, professional, or doctoral labor force activity, and school enrollment degree.2 The question has two response op- status of the 2011 cohort of recent college tions: in the current year or a prior year. For graduates. Additional labor force data are the purpose of this article, respondents who Thomas Luke Spreen is a also presented for the 2007 to 2010 co- report they received their degree in the current doctoral student at the School of Public and Environmental horts of recent college graduates. calendar year are considered recent college Affairs, Indiana University, Bloomington, IN, and formerly graduates. (For more information about how an economist in the Office of About the data recent college graduate status is determined, Employment and Unemploy- ment Statistics, Division of see the section entitled “Supplement question Labor Force Statistics, Bureau of The CPS is a nationally representative identifying recent college graduates” in the ap- Labor Statistics. Email: cpsinfo@ bls.gov. sample survey of 60,000 households pro- pendix, p. 12.) This question can be used with Monthly Labor Review • February 2013 3 Recent College Graduates the monthly CPS demographic and labor force questions graduates between April and June, collegiate graduation to identify labor force outcomes and school enrollment can occur at any time of the year, depending on the in- status of college graduates within a year of completion of stitution’s academic calendar. Therefore, individuals who their degree. graduate following the fall semester (typically in Decem- The approximate measure of recent college graduates ber) may be systematically missed by the School Enroll- currently available from the CPS is 16-to-24-year-olds ment Supplement, which occurs in October of each year. with at least a bachelor’s degree who are not enrolled in Second, the CPS sample includes only members of the school. These data have the advantage of timely publica- civilian noninstitutional population of the United States. tion each month concurrent with “The Employment Situ- Individuals who have entered active duty in the armed ation” news release.3 However, with no question to iden- forces and international students who have returned to tify the precise date of completion, these estimates include their country of origin following completion of their persons who completed their degree more than a year college degree are not eligible to participate in the CPS. prior to the survey. Furthermore, since these estimates Finally, in this article, estimates of recent college gradu- are restricted to 16-to-24-year-olds, they systematically ates are restricted to persons ages 20 to 29. Data from the exclude older graduates. Data from the NCES-sponsored Baccalaureate and Beyond Longitudinal Study show that Baccalaureate and Beyond Longitudinal Study show that about 13 percent of bachelor’s degree recipients receive nearly one-fifth of bachelor’s degree recipients finish their their degree at the age of 30 or older.8 degrees between the ages of 24 and 29 years.4 Despite these limitations, data from the CPS School As previously noted, the question used to identify Enrollment Supplement provide an annual portrait of recent college graduates in the CPS School Enrollment demographic makeup and labor force outcomes for each Supplement is restricted to persons ages 15 to 29. All year’s cohort of recent college graduates. Furthermore, data reported in this article are restricted to recent college several years of historical data are already available. graduates ages 20 to 29. Persons ages 15 to 19 were ex- cluded from estimates in this article because of their small Demographic characteristics representation within the October 2011 sample.5 This ar- ticle provides demographic and labor force data for three The demographic profile of the 2011 cohort of recent col- groups: (1) all recent college graduates, (2) recipients of lege graduates differs from that of the civilian noninstitu- bachelor’s degree only, and (3) recipients of an advanced tional population of all 20- to 29-year-old young adults degree, which includes those who received a master’s, pro- (see table 1). In October 2011, recent graduates were more fessional, or doctoral degree.6 likely to be female (53 percent) than were young adults overall (49 percent). About 10 percent of recent graduates Limitations were Black, compared with about 14 percent of all young adults in their twenties. Recent graduates were also con- The October School Enrollment Supplement may not siderably less likely to be Hispanic; about 1 in 10 recent capture a sizeable number of recent degree recipients. Data graduates were Hispanic, compared with about 2 in 10 of from the NCES’s Integrated Postsecondary Education all young adults. Whites and Asians were somewhat over- Data System (IPEDS), a survey of postsecondary institu- represented among the 2011 cohort of recent graduates tions in the United States, show that approximately 1.65 relative to their shares of the total civilian noninstitutional million bachelor’s degrees and about 850,000 advanced population of young adults in their twenties. The demo- degrees were conferred in the 2009 to 2010 academic graphic characteristics of 2011 recent college graduates year.7 Data for 2010 from the October 2010 School En- largely resemble those of other young college graduates. rollment Supplement show that about 1.0 million persons About 82 percent of the 1.3 million 2011 recent college received a bachelor’s degree between January and October graduates ages 20 to 29 were recipients of a bachelor’s de- 2010, with an additional 300,000 receiving some type of gree. (See chart 1.) The remaining 18 percent were recipi- advanced degree over that same period. ents of an advanced degree. Of those, 13 percent received Several reasons exist for the discrepancy between es- a master’s degree, 4 percent received a professional degree, timates generated from the School Enrollment Supple- and 2 percent received a doctoral degree. ment and IPEDS data. First, the timing of the October Nearly 60 percent of the 2011 cohort of recent recipi- supplement presents a potential problem. Unlike high ents of bachelor’s degrees were ages 22 to 23 in October school graduation, which occurs for nearly all high school 2011, with an additional 18 percent ages 24 to 25. (See 4 Monthly Labor Review • February 2013 Table 1. Demographic characteristics of the civilian chart 2.) This pattern reflects the fact that a sizeable ma- noninstitutional population and 2011 recent college jority of high school graduates enter college in the same graduates, 20 to 29 years of age, October 2011 year they receive their high school diploma.9 According [Levels in thousands] to the Baccalaureate and Beyond Longitudinal Study, the 20-to-29-year-olds median time to completion of a bachelor’s degree was 52 Characteristic College 2011 recent months in 2009, with about two-thirds of bachelor’s de-Total graduates college graduates grees completed in 60 months or less.10 Recent recipients Total 42,612 9,608 1,336 of an advanced degree tended to be older in October 2011, Percent distribution 100.0 100.0 100.0 reflecting the requirement of at least a bachelor’s degree to enroll in most graduate programs. Gender Men 50.6 44.5 46.6 Labor force Women 49.4 55.5 53.4 Race The labor force participation rate measures the proportion White 77.5 80.0 80.3 of the civilian noninstitutional population that is either Black or African American 14.3 8.5 10.1 working or looking for work. About 1.1 million, or 85.2 Asian 4.9 9.3 5.8 percent, of the 2011 cohort of recent college graduates Hispanic or Latino ethnicity were participating in the labor force in October 2011. The Hispanic or Latino 19.5 7.2 10.3 labor force participation rate for recent college graduates Non-Hispanic or Latino 80.5 92.8 89.7 was only somewhat lower a year earlier, at 83.3 percent in NOTE: Recent college graduates refer to people ages 20 to 29 who October 2010. (See table 2.) completed a bachelor’s, master’s, professional, or doctoral degree in the calendar year of the survey (January through October). Data for the Recent recipients of advanced degrees were more likely race groups shown do not sum to 100 percent because not all races are to participate in the labor force than did recipients of presented. People whose ethnicity is identified as Hispanic or Latino may be of any race. bachelor’s degrees. The labor force participation rate of SOURCE: October 2011 School Enrollment Supplement to the Current recipients of advanced degrees was 91.0 percent in Octo- Population Survey, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Chart 1. 2011 recent college graduates ages 20 to 29, by degree, October 2011 [In percent] Doctoral Professional 3.8 1.9 Master’s 12.5 81.8 Bachelor’s NSOOTUE:R CREe:c eUn.St. c Boullreegaeu gorfa Ldaubaotre sS traetfiesrt itcos .persons ages 20 to 29 who completed a bachelor’s, master’s, professional, or doctoral degree in the calendar year of the survey (January through October). In October 2011, recent college graduates totaled 1.3 million. SOURCE: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Monthly Labor Review • February 2013 5 Recent College Graduates r Chart 2. 2011 recent college graduates by age and degree, October 2011 Percent Percent distribution distribution 70 70 60 60 Bachelor’s degree Advanced degree 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 20–21 22–23 24–25 26–27 28–29 0 Ages NOTE: Recent college graduates refer to persons ages 20 to 29 who completed a bachelor’s, master’s, professional, or doctoral degree in the calendar year of the survey (January through October). In October 2011, recent college graduates totaled 1.3 million. SOURCE: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Table 2. Labor force participation rates of recent college graduates by degree and gender, each October 2007–2011 [Levels in thousands] Year Degree and gender 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Total recent college graduates Civilian noninstitutional population, ages 20 to 29 1,192 1,281 1,217 1,332 1,336 Participation rate, total 87.0 88.4 85.2 83.3 85.2 Men 88.8 86.0 84.9 83.2 84.9 Women 85.7 90.1 85.3 83.3 85.4 Bachelor’s degree Civilian noninstitutional population 938 946 893 1,023 1,093 Participation rate, total 85.3 88.2 83.4 81.6 83.9 Men 88.3 85.5 82.5 81.7 83.1 Women 83.1 90.5 84.2 81.5 84.6 Advanced degree Civilian noninstitutional population 254 334 324 299 243 Participation rate, total 93.2 89.0 89.9 89.1 91.0 Men 91.0 88.2 91.0 87.1 94.6 Women 94.4 89.4 88.9 90.8 88.5 NOTE: Recent college graduates refer to people ages 20 to 29 who completed a bachelor’s, master’s, professional, or doctoral degree in the calendar year of the survey (January through October). SOURCE: October 2007–2011 School Enrollment Supplement to the Current Population Survey, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. 6 Monthly Labor Review • February 2013 ber 2011, compared with 83.9 percent of recent bachelor’s The employment–population ratio of male recent col- degree recipients. The labor force participation rate of the lege graduates was 71.8 percent in October 2011, little 2011 cohort of recent college graduates was similar for changed from a year earlier. The employment–population men and women, regardless of the degree received. ratio of their female counterparts was 76.7 percent in Oc- tober 2011, somewhat higher than it was a year earlier, at The employed 73.6 percent in October 2010. The employment–popula- tion ratio of 2011 male recent college graduates remains In October 2011, 74.5 percent of the 1.3 million 2011 8.0 percentage points below the prerecession level. recent college graduates were employed (see table 3). The For recent college graduates, initial job placement is employment–population ratio of recent college gradu- critical for developing on-the-job skills and determining ates was somewhat higher in October 2011 than it was in the trajectory of their lifetime earnings.12 Almost one- October 2010 (72.3 percent). Between October 2007 and half of the 2011 cohort of recent college graduates were October 2009, the employment–population ratio of re- working in professional and related occupations in Octo- cent college graduates declined by 8.4 percentage points. ber 2011.13 (See table 4.) About 43 percent of recent bach- A considerable share of the decline can be attributed to elor’s degree recipients were employed in these occupa- male recipients of bachelor’s degrees, whose ratio fell by tions in October 2011, compared with about 68 percent of 17.8 percentage points over that period. advanced degree recipients. The high proportion of recent Recipients of an advanced degree were more likely to college graduates working in these occupations reflects be employed in October 2011 (83.2 percent) than were the entry requirement of at least a bachelor’s degree in the recipients of a bachelor’s degree (72.5 percent), a pattern majority of professional and related occupations.14 that generally holds for prior cohorts of recent college Large shares of the 2011 cohort also found work in graduates. Despite modest improvement, employment– sales and office occupations (19 percent); management, population ratios of both bachelor’s and advanced degree business, and financial operations occupations (14 per- recipients remain below their prerecession levels.11 cent); and service occupations (13 percent).15 Nearly all Table 3. Employment−population ratios of recent college graduates by degree and gender, each October 2007–2011 [Levels in thousands] Year Degree and gender 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Total recent college graduates Civilian noninstitutional population, ages 20 to 29 1,192 1,281 1,217 1,332 1,336 Employment−population ratio, total 80.3 78.1 71.9 72.3 74.5 Men 79.8 72.8 67.5 70.1 71.8 Women 80.6 82.0 75.5 73.6 76.7 Bachelor’s degree Civilian noninstitutional population 938 946 893 1,023 1,093 Employment−population ratio, total 77.6 77.7 68.8 70.1 72.5 Men 78.3 72.1 60.5 68.7 69.8 Women 77.0 82.4 75.0 71.0 75.1 Advanced degree Civilian noninstitutional population 254 334 324 299 243 Employment−population ratio, total 90.3 79.4 80.8 79.5 83.2 Men 86.4 75.7 85.0 74.2 83.3 Women 92.3 81.0 76.9 83.9 83.1 NOTE: Recent college graduates refer to people ages 20 to 29 who completed a bachelor’s, master’s, professional, or doctoral degree in the calendar year of the survey (January through October). SOURCE: October 2007–2011 School Enrollment Supplement to the Current Population Survey, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Monthly Labor Review • February 2013 7 Recent College Graduates Table 4. Employed recent college graduates by degree, occu- of a bachelor’s degree. Conversely, recipients of advanced pation, industry, and class of worker, October 2011 degrees made up a large share of those employed in man- [Levels in thousands] agement, business, and financial operations occupations. Total, recent Bachelor’s Advanced By industry, about 2 in 5 recent graduates in the 2011 Characteristic college graduates degree degree cohort found work in educational and health services.16 Total employed, ages 20 to 29 995 793 202 (See table 4.) Within that industry, about 22 percent of Percent distribution 100.0 100.0 100.0 recent graduates were employed in educational services Occupation¹ and about 20 percent in health care and social assistance. Management, business, and More than one-half of recipients of advanced degrees in financial operations 14.0 11.6 23.2 2011 were employed in one of these industries. The 2011 Professional and related 47.9 42.7 68.3 cohort of recent graduates also found work in professional Service 12.7 15.3 2.3 and business services (16 percent), wholesale and retail Sales and office 19.1 23.1 3.7 trade (10 percent), and leisure and hospitality (9 percent). All other 6.3 7.3 2.4 Almost one-quarter of recipients of advanced degrees were employed in professional and business services. Re- Industry² cent bachelor’s degree recipients made up almost all of Goods-producing 6.4 7.8 1.1 those recent graduates employed in leisure and hospitality. Wholesale and retail trade 10.3 10.0 11.7 Most recent graduates were employed in the private Financial activities 6.1 6.7 3.7 sector. (See table 4.) About one-fifth of recent graduates Professional and business 16.0 14.1 23.7 found work in the public sector, primarily in state and lo-services cal government. Three-fourths of those recent graduates Educational and health services 41.8 38.5 54.9 employed in state and local government were working in Educational services 22.2 20.2 30.4 education. Health care and social assistance 19.6 18.3 24.6 Unemployment rate Leisure and hospitality 9.0 11.2 .3 Public administration 3.4 3.2 4.0 A key measure of the health of the labor market is the All other industries 6.9 8.5 .6 unemployment rate, which is the proportion of the labor Class of worker³ force that is not working but is actively seeking work and Government wage and salary available to take a job, if offered. The unemployment rate workers 17.5 15.4 25.7 of recent college graduates was 12.6 percent in October Federal 2.5 2.1 4.3 2011, little changed from a year earlier. (See table 5.) De- State 8.6 8.3 9.7 spite modest improvement since a recent peak in October Local 6.4 5.0 11.8 2009, the unemployment rate of recent college graduates Private wage and salary remains elevated above prerecession levels. workers 81.7 84.0 72.9 The 2011 cohort of male graduates had an unemploy- All other .8 .6 1.4 ment rate of 15.4 percent in October 2011, compared 1 All other occupations include natural resources, construction, and with 10.1 percent for their female counterparts. Over the maintenance occupations and production, transportation, and material period of October 2007 to October 2009, the unemploy- moving occupations. 2 Goods-producing industries include agricultural and related, mining, ment rate of both male and female recent college gradu- construction, and manufacturing industries. All other industries include ates doubled. The increase in unemployment was relatively transportation and warehousing, utilities, information, and other services. more severe for men, who experienced a peak unemploy- 3 All other classes include both incorporated and unincorporated self- employed workers and unpaid family workers. ment rate of 20.5 percent in October 2009, 8.9 percentage NOTE: Recent college graduates refer to people ages 20 to 29 who com- points higher than the rate of their female counterparts. pleted a bachelor’s, master’s, professional, or doctoral degree in the calen- The unemployment rate for the 2011 recipients of ad- dar year of the survey (January through October). SOURCE: October 2011 School Enrollment Supplement to the Current vanced degrees was 8.6 percent, compared with 13.5 per- Population Survey, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. cent for recipients of bachelor’s degrees in October 2011. This discrepancy may reflect the fact that recipients of an 2011 recent college graduates employed in sales and of- advanced degree are older on average than recipients of fice occupations and service occupations were recipients a bachelor’s degree, and older persons tend to have lower 8 Monthly Labor Review • February 2013 unemployment rates. This result may also be because ad- rolling in graduate school. In a weak labor market, gradu- vanced degrees confer specialized skills that employers ate school would seem to appeal to recent bachelor’s de- find desirable. gree graduates, although empirical evidence of a cyclical pattern to graduate school enrollment is mixed.17 School enrollment About one-quarter of the 2011 cohort of recent college graduates were enrolled in school in October 2011.18 (See Many recent college graduates face a decision of either table 6.) The proportion of the recent college graduates entering the labor market directly after graduation or en- enrolled in school in October 2011 changed little from Table 5. Unemployment rates of recent college graduates by degree and gender, each October 2007–2011 [Levels in thousands] Year Degree and gender 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Total recent college graduates Civilian labor force, ages 20 to 29 1,036 1,132 1,036 1,101 1,138 Unemployment rate, total 7.7 11.6 15.5 13.2 12.6 Men 10.2 15.4 20.5 15.7 15.4 Women 6.0 9.1 11.6 11.7 10.1 Bachelor’s degree Civilian labor force 800 834 745 834 917 Unemployment rate, total 9.0 11.9 17.6 14.0 13.5 Men 11.4 15.7 26.6 16.0 16.1 Women 7.3 8.9 10.9 12.8 11.2 Advanced degree Civilian labor force 236 298 291 266 221 Unemployment rate, total 3.1 10.9 10.2 10.8 8.6 Men 5.0 14.1 6.6 14.9 12.0 Women 2.2 9.4 13.5 7.6 6.1 NOTE: Recent college graduates refer to people ages 20 to 29 who completed a bachelor’s, master’s, professional, or doctoral degree in the calendar year of the survey (January through October). SOURCE: October 2007–2011 School Enrollment Supplement to the Current Population Survey, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Table 6. School enrollment rates of recent college graduates by degree, each October 2007–2011 [Levels in thousands] Year Degree 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Total recent college graduates Civilian noninstitutional population, ages 20 to 29 1,192 1,281 1,217 1,332 1,336 Percent enrolled in school, total 26.1 19.2 24.9 23.8 24.7 Bachelor’s degree Civilian noninstitutional population 938 946 893 1,023 1,093 Percent enrolled in school, total 29.3 19.7 27.0 25.9 27.6 Advanced degree Civilian noninstitutional population 254 334 324 299 243 Percent enrolled in school, total 14.2 18.0 19.1 16.7 11.5 NOTE: Recent college graduates refer to people ages 20 to 29 who completed a bachelor’s, master’s, professional, or doctoral degree in the calendar year of the survey (January through October). Regular schooling is that which may advance a person toward a high school diploma or a college, university, or professional degree. SOURCE: October 2007–2011 School Enrollment Supplement to the Current Population Survey, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Monthly Labor Review • February 2013 9 Recent College Graduates Table 7. Labor force status of 2011 recent college graduates by degree, gender, race, Hispanic or Latino ethnicity, age, and school enrollment, October 2011 [Levels in thousands] Civilian Civilian labor force Characteristic noninsti- Employed Unemployed Not in the tutional Total Percent of population Total Percent of labor force population population Number Rate Total, 2011 recent college graduates¹ Total, ages 20 to 29 1,336 1,138 85.2 995 74.5 143 12.6 198 Men 622 528 84.9 447 71.8 81 15.4 94 Women 714 610 85.4 548 76.7 62 10.1 104 White 1,073 935 87.1 836 77.9 99 10.6 138 Black 135 114 84.4 91 67.4 23 20.2 21 Asian 78 52 67.0 33 42.0 19 (2) 26 Hispanic 137 122 89.0 107 78.3 15 12.1 15 Ages 20 to 24 912 781 85.6 688 75.4 94 12.0 131 Ages 25 to 29 424 357 84.1 308 72.5 49 13.8 67 Enrolled in school 330 224 68.0 210 63.5 15 6.6 106 Not enrolled in school 1,006 914 90.8 785 78.1 128 14.0 93 Bachelor’s degree Total 1,093 917 83.9 793 72.5 124 13.5 176 Men 526 438 83.1 367 69.8 70 16.1 89 Women 567 479 84.6 426 75.1 54 11.2 88 Ages 20 to 24 856 728 85.0 641 74.8 87 12.0 128 Ages 25 to 29 237 189 79.6 152 64.2 37 19.4 48 Enrolled in school 302 201 66.5 186 61.6 15 7.3 101 Not enrolled in school 791 716 90.5 606 76.7 109 15.3 75 Master’s degree or higher Total 243 221 91.0 202 83.2 19 8.6 22 Men 96 91 94.6 80 83.3 11 12.0 5 Women 147 130 88.5 122 83.1 8 6.1 17 Ages 20 to 24 56 53 (2) 47 (2) 6 (2) 3 Ages 25 to 29 187 168 89.9 155 83.1 13 7.5 19 1 Data refer to people who graduated from college in January through October 2011. 2 Data not shown where base is less than 75,000. NOTE: Recent college graduates refer to people ages 20 to 29 who completed a bachelor’s, master’s, professional, or doctoral degree in the calendar year of the survey (January through October). Data for the race groups shown do not sum to totals because not all races are presented. People whose ethnicity is identified as Hispanic or Latino may be of any race. SOURCE: October 2011 School Enrollment Supplement to the Current Population Survey, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. prior years. A higher percentage of recent recipients of unemployed than those not enrolled. bachelor’s degree (about 28 percent) were enrolled in school compared with that of recent recipients of ad- WITH MORE PEOPLE EARNING COLLEGE DEGREES vanced degrees (about 12 percent) in October 2011. than ever before, documenting labor force outcomes for Recent graduates who were enrolled in school in each new cohort of college graduates is important. Ad- October 2011 were less likely to be participating in the ministered annually each October, the CPS School En- labor force (68.0 percent) than those not enrolled (90.8 rollment Supplement provides a snapshot of the demo- percent). (See table 7.) Those enrolled in school were less graphic and labor force characteristics of each new cohort likely to be working and were somewhat less likely to be of recent graduates. 10 Monthly Labor Review • February 2013 The data collected in the CPS School Enrollment pations in October 2011. About 2 in 5 were employed in Supplement show that 74.5 percent of the 2011 cohort of educational and health services. About one-fifth of recent recent college graduates were employed in October 2011 college graduates were working in the public sector, pri- and that their unemployment rate was 12.6 percent. The marily in education services. employment–population ratio and unemployment rate of About 25 percent of 2011 recent college graduates were recent college graduates were similar in 2011 and 2010. enrolled in school in October 2011. Recipients of bache- Generally, recipients of advanced degrees were more likely lor’s degrees were more likely to be enrolled in school than to be employed than those who received bachelor’s degrees. were recipients of an advanced degree. Those enrolled in About one-half of the 2011 cohort of recent college school were less likely to participate in the labor force graduates were working in professional and related occu- than those who were not enrolled. Notes 1 College graduates are persons who completed a bachelor’s degree 10 See table 3, “Time to degree: median and percentage distribu- and higher, which includes bachelor’s, master’s, professional, and doctoral tion of 2007–08 first-time bachelor’s degree recipients by number of degrees. months from enrollment to degree attainment and enrollment char- 2 For more information, see “Attachment 8: Current Population acteristics: 2009,” 2008–09 Baccalaureate and Beyond Longitudinal Survey, October 2011 School Enrollment and Internet Use Supple- Study (National Center for Education Statistics, July 2011), pp. 10–11, ment Questionnaire,” Current Population Survey, October 2011 School http://nces.ed.gov/pubs2011/2011236.pdf. Enrollment File Technical Documentation (U.S. Census Bureau, October 11 According the National Bureau of Economic Research, which is 2011), http://www.census.gov/apsd/techdoc/cps/cpsoct11.pdf. generally recognized as the official arbiter of recessions in the United 3 See table A-16, “Employment status of the civilian noninsti- States, the most recent recession began in December 2007 and ended tutional population 16 to 24 years of age by school enrollment, age, in June 2009. sex, race, Hispanic or Latino ethnicity, and educational attainment,” 12 Labor force statistics from the Current Population Survey (U.S. Bureau See Lisa B. Kahn, “The long-term consequences of graduating of Labor Statistics, February 2013), http://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/ from college in a bad economy,” Labour Economics, April 2010, pp. cpseea16.htm. 303–316. 4 See table 1, “Demography and enrollment by sex and race/ethnic- 13 Professional and related occupations include computer and ity: percentage distribution of 2007–2008 first-time bachelor’s recipi- mathematical; architecture and engineering; life, physical, and social ents by sex, race/ethnicity, demographic and enrollment characteristics: science; community and social service; legal; education, training, and 2009,” 2008–09 Baccalaureate and Beyond Longitudinal Study (National library; arts, entertainment, sports, and media, and healthcare practi- Center for Education Statistics, July 2011), p. 8, http://nces.ed.gov/ tioner and technical occupations. Professional and related occupations pubs2011/2011236.pdf. made up 22.1 percent of total employment in 2011. 5 Of the 547 respondents to the October 2011 School Enrollment 14 Dixie Sommers and Teresa L. Morisi, “Employment projections Supplement to the CPS with an educational attainment of a bachelor’s through the lens of education and training,” Monthly Labor Review, degree or higher between the ages of 15 and 29, 7 respondents were April 2012, pp. 13–28, http://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2012/04/art between the ages of 15 and 19, or about 1.3 percent of the total sample. 2full.pdf. 6 A professional degree includes medical doctor (M.D.), doctor of 15 Sales and office occupations include retail sales workers, sales dental surgery (D.D.S.), juris doctor (J.D.), and other comparable degrees. representatives, as well as office and administrative support occupa- A doctoral degree includes doctor of philosophy (Ph.D.), doctor of edu- tions, such as clerks and secretaries. Sales and office occupations made cation (Ed.D.), and other comparable degrees at the doctoral level. See up about 23.6 percent of total employment in 2011. appendix in this article for additional information. 16 7 See table 292, “Degrees conferred by degree-granting institutions, The estimates for different industries, including those for educa- by control of institution, level of degree, and field of study: 2009–10,” In- tional and health services, include both government and private wage tegrated Postsecondary Education Data System, Digest of Education Sta- and salary workers. tistics (National Center for Education Statistics, May 2011), http://nces. 17 Kelly Bedard and Douglas A. Herman, “Who goes to graduate/ ed.gov/programs/digest/d11/tables/dt11_292.asp. professional school? The importance of economic fluctuations, under- 8 Table 1, 2008–09 Baccalaureate and Beyond Longitudinal Study, graduate field, and ability,” Economics of Education Review, April 2008, http://nces.ed.gov/pubs2011/2011236.pdf. pp. 197–210. 9 For more information, see the news release “College enrollment 18 A person is considered enrolled in school if they were enrolled in and work activity of 2011 high school graduates” (U. S. Bureau of La- regular school in the October of the calendar year of the survey. Regu- bor Statistics, April 19, 2012), http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/ lar schooling is that which may advance a person toward a high school hsgec.pdf. diploma or a college, university, or professional degree. Monthly Labor Review • February 2013 11 Recent College Graduates APPENDIX: Technical information about measures of educational attainment and recent college graduates in the Current Population Survey The estimates for recent college graduates in this article were obtained from a supplement to the October 2011 Educational attainment Example Current Population Survey (CPS). The CPS is a monthly Less than a high school diploma survey of about 60,000 eligible households that provides High school diploma information on employment and unemployment in the Some college or associate’s degree United States. The CPS is conducted each month by the    Associate’s degree U.S. Census Bureau. A CPS supplement consists of ques- College graduate tions on a particular topic following the completion of the    Bachelor’s degree B.A., B.S. basic monthly questionnaire. The monthly CPS began in    Advanced degree 1940, and the School Enrollment Supplement has been       Master’s degree M.A., M.S., M.P.A., M.B.A. conducted annually each October since 1961.1 The BLS, Census Bureau, and National Center for Education Sta-       Professional degree J.D., M.D., D.D.S. tistics jointly sponsor the School Enrollment Supplement.       Doctoral degree Ph.D., Ed.D. Educational attainment measurement in the CPS Supplement question identifying recent Prior to 1992, educational attainment was enumerated in college graduates the CPS by the number of years of schooling completed. Beginning in January 1992, the began to measure All respondents to the October CPS between the ages of CPS educational attainment by the highest diploma or degree 15 and 29 who possess at least an associate’s degree are received, matching the measure used in the 1990 Census.2 asked when they received their most recent college degree. The updated educational attainment measure more accu- Specifically, the School Enrollment Supplement question rately captures the economic benefit conferred on workers is, “In what calendar year did you receive your most recent who successfully complete their degree.3 A research sum- degree?” This question has two response options: in the mary published in the September 1993 Monthly Labor current year or in a prior year. This question first appeared Review documents the motivation for the change as well in the October 1993 School Enrollment Supplement and as specific changes to the wording of the questionnaire.4 has been asked in each subsequent supplement. The School Enrollment Supplement questionnaire was Respondents who report that they received their de- updated in October 1992 to reflect the new educational gree in the calendar year of the survey (January through attainment measure. October) are considered recent college graduates. All Data for college graduates presented in this article labor force estimates for recent college graduates in this include persons with a bachelor’s degree or higher. Ad- article refer to persons ages 20 to 29 with a bachelor’s de- ditional data are also presented specifically for recipients gree or higher. Persons ages 15 to 19 were excluded from of a bachelor’s degree, as well as for recipients of an ad- estimates in this article because of their small representa-5 vanced degree, such as a master’s, professional, or doc- tion within the October 2011 sample. toral degree. All estimates for college graduates in this Limitations of the CPS data article exclude recipients of associate’s degrees. Currently, the BLS considers persons with an associate’s degree to The sample size of the CPS limits the precision of detailed possess an educational attainment of some college or as- data pertaining to relatively small groups. For instance, sociate’s degree. The box that follows shows the educa- in October 2011, approximately 700 respondents had re- tional attainment categories and applicable abbreviations ceived a degree in the calendar year of the survey (January used in the CPS. through October) and were members of a household par- 12 Monthly Labor Review • February 2013 ticipating in the CPS. Of those, about 160 had received an Weighting procedures associate’s degree, about 440 had received a bachelor’s de- gree, and about 100 received an advanced degree. Further The publication Design and Methodology: Current Popu- division of the data by different characteristics can result lation Survey, also known as Technical Paper 66, describes in weighted estimates that are based on very few inter- general weighting procedures for calculating various views. As a result, the standard errors for some weighted kinds of data from the CPS.8 The technical documentation estimates are large.6 All estimates presented in this article for the October 2011 School Enrollment Supplement meet the minimum threshold for publication of monthly contains a more detailed description of estimation and CPS data.7 weighting procedures specifically for the supplement.9 Notes to appendix 1 For more information, see “School Enrollment Reports and Ta- were between the ages of 15 and 19, or about 1.3 percent of the total bles from Previous Years” (U.S. Census Bureau, August 2, 2011), http:// sample. www.census.gov/hhes/school/data/cps/previous/index.html. 6 For a full discussion on the reliability of data from the CPS and 2 The question used to measure educational attainment in the CPS information on estimating standard errors, see http://www.bls.gov/ asks the respondent, “What is the highest level of school completed or the cps/documentation.htm#reliability. highest degree received?” A recent college graduate of a joint degree pro- 7 gram, such as a joint medical doctor (M.D.) and master’s of public health Generally, rates and percentages are not published for CPS data (M.P.H.), would therefore be counted as a professional degree recipient. unless the monthly base is greater than 75,000. For more informa- For more information, about the questions on educational attainment tion, see “Employment and earnings: household data, reliability of in the , see “Current Population Survey Interviewing Manual” (U.S. estimates” (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, February 2006), p. 197, CPS Census Bureau, January 2012), pp. C3–16 through C3–18, http://www. http://www.bls.gov/cps/documentation.htm#reliability. census.gov/apsd/techdoc/cps/CPS_Manual_Jan2012_Entire.pdf. 8 “Chapter 10: Weighting and Seasonal Adjustment for Labor 3 David A. Jaeger and Marianne E. Page, “Degrees matter: new Force Data,” Design and Methodology: Current Population Survey, evidence on sheepskin effects in the returns to education,” The Review Technical Paper 66 (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and U.S. Cen- of Economics and Statistics, November 1996, pp. 733–740. sus Bureau, October 2006), pp. 75–88, http://www.census.gov/prod/2006pubs/tp-66.pdf. 4 Robert Kominski and Paul M. Siegel, “Measuring education 9 in the Current Population Survey,” Monthly Labor Review, Septem- For more information, see “Attachment 16: Source of the Data ber 1993, pp. 34–38. http://www.bls.gov/cps/measuring_educa and Accuracy of the Estimates for the October 2011 CPS Microdata tion_1993.pdf. File on School Enrollment Source and Accuracy of the October 2011 School Enrollment Data,” Current Population Survey, October 2011 5 Of the 547 respondents to the October 2011 School Enrollment School Enrollment File Technical Documentation (U.S. Census Bureau, Supplement to the CPS with an educational attainment of a bachelor’s October 2011), p. 200, http://www.census.gov/apsd/techdoc/cps/ degree or higher and between the ages of 15 and 29, 7 respondents cpsoct11.pdf. Monthly Labor Review • February 2013 13