eCommons

 

A Wavelet-Based Analysis of Commodity Futures Markets

Other Titles

Abstract

The time horizon of decision-making is an essential dimension of economic problems but is difficult to explicitly define. In this thesis, we use time series analysis augmented by wavelet transform methods to precisely identify distinct time horizons in economic data and measure their explanatory power. This enables us to address three timely and persistent questions in the literature on commodity derivatives markets are addressed. First, are findings of long memory (fractional integration) in commodity futures price volatility spurious, following Granger?s conjecture? Yes, only two out of eleven commodities are characterized by true long memory and certain stochastic break models (e.g. Markov-switching) are found to be more plausible. Second, do large Index Traders such as commodity pools and pension funds increase futures price volatility through a large volume of trading activity? This appears to be true only for non-storable commodity contracts. Third, can we improve the accuracy of term structure models of futures prices by (i) including more state variables to better capture maturity and inventory effects, and (ii) filtering out what appears to be noise at the shortest time horizons? The results suggest that (i) three state variables is an optimal choice and (ii) estimates using filtered data are not improved and the noise may be economically meaningful.

Journal / Series

Volume & Issue

Description

Sponsorship

Date Issued

2007-07-11T17:05:47Z

Publisher

Keywords

Commodities; Futures; Long memory; Term structure; Wavelets; Volatility

Location

Effective Date

Expiration Date

Sector

Employer

Union

Union Local

NAICS

Number of Workers

Committee Chair

Committee Co-Chair

Committee Member

Degree Discipline

Degree Name

Degree Level

Related Version

Related DOI

Related To

Related Part

Based on Related Item

Has Other Format(s)

Part of Related Item

Related To

Related Publication(s)

Link(s) to Related Publication(s)

References

Link(s) to Reference(s)

Previously Published As

Government Document

ISBN

ISMN

ISSN

Other Identifiers

Rights

Rights URI

Types

dissertation or thesis

Accessibility Feature

Accessibility Hazard

Accessibility Summary

Link(s) to Catalog Record